We all make mistakes.
In Take-Two Interactive's (NASDAQ:TTWO) case, it's blunder isn't last night's sloppy fiscal third-quarter report. The renegade video game company's biggest mistake was not signing on the dotted line when Electronic Arts (NASDAQ:ERTS) was offering a buyout at $26 a share last year.
This doesn't mean that last night's decomposing financials wasn't one for the nasal clothespins. It was a real stinker. Revenue fell 68% to $138.6 million, as Take-Two released just three minor titles. It's hard to compete against last year, when its Grand Theft Auto IV blockbuster hit the market toward the end of the second quarter and bled nicely into the following quarter.
Take-Two posted a loss of $0.72 a share for the quarter, a far cry from the $0.67 a share profit it delivered a year ago.
The upside at this point is that it will get better from here. The publisher's guidance calls for a non-GAAP profit of $0.30 to $0.35 a share this quarter, though the fiscal year itself will be a bloodbath.
This would seem to make it an ideal time for a buyout. EA swooped in last year, just weeks before Grand Theft Auto IV hit the market. If an opportunistic nibbler ever wanted a shot to land Take-Two on the cheap, it would have to be now before the company bounces back.
The catalysts are simmering. Its Grand Theft Auto franchise is making the leap into Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) App Store this quarter. BioShock 2 should be one of next year's biggest video games.
EA execs would be greeted as liberators this time around, and it would be able to seal the deal for far less than its original $26 price.
It may have competition, this time around. Viacom (NYSE:VIA) and Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ:ATVI) have seen interest wane in their Rock Band and Guitar Hero franchises, respectively. They are both hitting the market this month with major updates, but if the new titles prove to be unplugged in the marketplace, Take-Two would be a logical choice to refresh their empires.
Take-Two investors -- at least the ones fortunate enough to have gotten in near recent prices -- are in a win-win situation. If Take-Two's catalysts bear fruit, the stock should gradually inch higher over the next year. If a suitor offers a respectable premium, it could be a lucrative exit strategy.
So Take-Two made a colossal mistake last year, but now it seems as if it can't mess this one up.
Some songs for the Take-Two mix tape on the drive home:
- EA walked away from Take-Two in September of last year.
- Its tender offers didn't come as tender or offers to Take-Two shareholders at the time.
- What are you waiting for? Here is your shot to score big.
