Stay away, soothsayers.

Accounting-risks watcher Audit Integrity has put out a list of the companies that are most likely to file for bankruptcy protection over the next 12 months.

Rite Aid (NYSE:RAD) leads the list of death-pool stocks that command market caps greater than $1 billion, with a 10.5% risk of filing, according to Audit Integrity's quantitative model.

Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) follows the drugstore maker, with a 9% chance of declaring bankruptcy over the next year.

The notion that it will is ludicrous, on many different levels:

  • Sirius XM may have been teetering on the brink of fiscal collapse earlier this year, but a timely Liberty Media (NASDAQ:LCAPA) cash infusion slayed those demons. Yes, Liberty Media is also on Audit Integrity's top 10 list -- with a 5.6% probability of buckling -- but Sirius XM already has the money.
  • The satellite-radio giant recently extended looming debt maturities and has replaced debt with borrowings at more attractive rates.
  • Sirius XM has been inching its cash-flow guidance higher throughout the year.

Even Audit Integrity concedes that Sirius XM's position isn't as grave as it was earlier this year. Its quarterly Accounting and Governance Risk score has gone from the lowest 1% rating after Sirius XM's first quarter to 6% following the second quarter. Being in the sixth percentile still tags Sirius XM as "very aggressive," but the trend is improving.

It's important to point out that Rite Aid, Sirius, and bronze medalist AMR (NYSE:AMR) are on a ranked list of companies with market caps greater than $1 billion. This threshold eliminates the far riskier companies that are merely gasping for air before going under. Given their considerable debt levels, their enterprise values are even higher -- between $5 billion and $9 billion.

Some of the names on the list may fail, but it's hard to fathom that a company that's turned the corner, such as Sirius XM has -- with losses narrowing and cash flow prospects improving -- will head to bankruptcy court anytime soon.

Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz is a subscriber to both Sirius and XM. He owns no shares in any of the companies in this story. He is also a member of the Rule Breakers analytical team, seeking out the next great growth stock early in its defiance. The Fool has a disclosure policy.