A 1-in-100 Investor

The first 100 days in office sets the tone for any new president. Similarly, Motley Fool CAPS keeps an eye on members who score 100 points of market outperformance on stock picks in their first 100 days. Here, we're looking at our All-Stars who made some of their best stock selections early on and seeing which ones they think will do best next.

One of our highest-rated CAPS members is firstMY who sports a top 94.89 member rating. Below are a few of this top member's most recent stock selections and how they were rated.

Source: Motley Fool CAPS; *Price when call was made. Current score is how many points a member is beating (lagging) the S&P500 index from the time of the call.

Let's take a look at what other CAPS members are saying about these stocks and whether they agree with this top player's assessment.

Degree of risk
Mobile phone maker Motorola has been pretty much left for dead in the race to take on Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Research In Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM), and just about any other smartphone manufacturer. Its Droid is seen as a last hurrah, but even then, because it's dependent on Google's Android OS, which plenty of other rivals are using, and on Verizon (NYSE: VZ) to bless it with the Droid moniker, Motorola is not in control of its own destiny.

That seems a little shortsighted to me. Because Android is open source, modifications can be made to differentiate it if Motorola wants; Verizon is said to be introducing two new Motorola phones next month, so they must be pleased with how the Droid has done; and outsourcing to HTC the design of its phones frees up resources to pursue other opportunities -- like an Android-based tablet device.

Tablets are going to be hot, and CEO Jha says Motorola wants to be a part of it. And were it not for a components shortage at Samsung, Verizon would likely be selling even more Droids. There's plenty going on at Motorola that makes its valuation at just 12 times next year's earnings seem attractive.

For CAPS member hybridinvestor, Motorola's smartphone is the only real competition out there for the iPhone:

Bigger picture is that the Droid smartphones sales are increasing and IMHO the Droid is the only true feature-for-feature competitor to the iPhone right now. Up off the lows but still way way down from 3-5 year levels I am going to pick some MOT up today as long as it does not pop too much on this news.

Store this away for later
After the real-estate market collapse made moot the claim that Sears Holdings was a play on its vast and supposedly lucrative real-estate portfolio, boosters suggested the value to be found in its brands -- Craftsman, Kenmore, Lands' End -- was where investors should seek profits. Sears' latest quarterly report might cut off that avenue of inquiry.

Even with the federal government doling out cash to consumers to get them to buy appliances, Sears couldn't sustain any momentum. Although it posted its first positive quarter comps number in years -- up 1.5% -- once "dollars for dishwashers" ended, the sales effort faltered. Sears also ended up killing its margins in the process by offering up deep discounts to drive traffic. Does anyone think it will be in positive comp territory next quarter, or can effectively compete against the big-box retailers?

Not highly rated CAPS All-Star hot1053, who says Sears is a dog with fleas whose real-estate holdings and brand names aren't all that:

Let's be honest with each other. Who really shops at these old and run down stores? The same 50 year old people typically. Gen X, Y, O etc. don't know the true difference between Kenmore, Craftsman, Lands End, etc. We buy semi-good brands names or no brand names at all at BBY, HD, clothing specialty stores, etc. for a lot less than what SHLD charges. These other stores are cleaner, newer, and are more friendly to deal with than Sears or Kmart. 

What a gas!
Congress is concerned that once UAL and Continental Air Lines (NYSE: CAL) merge, protections for workers and their benefits would be ephemeral. It's not like United's parent hasn't given them reason to worry in the past. It defaulted on its pension obligations and foisted them onto the taxpayers, which had the effect of slashing benefits for retirees and workers. Afterwards, UAL miraculously came up with a bevy of assets it wanted to sell to enrich itself, assets that somehow weren't previously available to it when it was crying poverty.

Not to worry, though, CEO Glenn Tilton will be taken care of if the merger goes through. According to UAL's proxy statement, Tilton would get a $14 million bonus if he is ousted after the change of control, on top of the accelerated vesting of millions of stock options he was granted.

It could be why more than half of CAPS members rating the carrier thought it would underperform the broad market averages. Let us know on the UAL CAPS page if this merger will ground the airline.

A 1-in-100 opportunity
As hockey great Wayne Gretzky once noted, "You miss 100% of the shots you never take." At Motley Fool CAPS every investor's opinion counts, and since it's free to sign up, why not use this opportunity to take your best shot?