In my recurring Fool column "Get Ready for the Bounce," we search for future winners in a pile of 52-week losers. But do we really need to sit around for a whole year, waiting for a fallen stock to bounce back?
Nope. Sometimes, stocks fall hard, in far less time than a year. And like a superball dropped from the balcony, the harder they fall, the higher they bounce. Today, we'll look at a few equities that've suffered dramatic drops over the past week. With a little help from the 165,000 members of Motley Fool CAPS, we hope to find an opportunity or two for you:
Companies |
How far from 52-week high? |
Recent Price |
CAPS Rating
|
---|---|---|---|
Manitowoc |
-37% |
$10.38 |
***** |
CVS Caremark |
-16% |
$32.08 |
**** |
TiVo |
-60% |
$7.63 |
**** |
Transocean |
-51% |
$46.85 |
**** |
BP |
-44% |
$33.97 |
*** |
Companies are selected by screening on finviz.com for abrupt 10% or greater price drops over the past week. 52-week high and recent price data provided by finviz.com. CAPS ratings from Motley Fool CAPS.
Five super falls -- one superball
Each of the stocks named above encountered ran into turbulence last week, for reasons that range from the glaringly obvious -- BP and Transocean, the twin whipping boys of the Gulf disaster -- to the slightly less obvious.
For instance, TiVo notched yet another litigious loss in its never-ending duel with Dish Network
As investors, of course, we're always on the lookout for stocks that get cheaper "for no reason." So today, we'll examine…
The bull case for Manitowoc
Back in the depths of the Great Recession, things looked undoubtedly bleak for Manitowoc. But according to CAPS member daveozark1: "MTW is back from the dead. It's crane division will benefit from the improvement in the worldwide economy."
bmoser81 agrees: "[Manitowoc's] gotten beaten down to nothing. all the bridges in the us.that need fixing,all the building requiring cranes in our infrastructure rebuild, just give it time, this is a much needed company …"
"While they are a smaller player than [Caterpillar
Imitation: The greatest form of profit?
Should you follow rofgile's lead and add Manitowoc to your portfolio as well? At first glance, it seems a small-f fool's errand. With no profits to its name, and net debt exceeding $2 billion, Manitowoc hardly seems to fit the definition of a prudent investment. Yet if you dig a little deeper, I think you'll find at least the potential for that to change. Over on the cash flow statement, we find Manitowoc generating roughly $244 million in free cash flow annually -- a far cry from the $72 million trailing "loss" the company reports under GAAP accounting standards.
But as pleased as you may be by this discovery, beware. Even with all the free cash flow, this stock still looks pretty pricey for its prospects. Divide the firm's free cash flow into its $3.5 billion enterprise value, and Manitowoc still sells for about 14.5 times free cash flow. To me, that seems excessive, relative to consensus expectations for 11% growth at the company.
Could a nascent national recovery boost free cash flow generation, help Manitowoc to pay off its debt, and accelerate its growth rate to the point where the stock becomes attractive? Of course! But to my mind, the stock's not there yet.
Time to chime in
That's just my opinion. Feel free to disagree -- in fact, here's a soapbox. If you've got a different opinion of Manitowoc, climb on up, and shout on out.