5 Questions for the Second Half of 2010

We're halfway through a turbulent year, and the market's rocky ways are likely to continue.

Sharp investors pay attention -- and profit -- from trends, so let's take a look at some of the meaty questions that will separate the winners from the losers.

1. Will Apple become the country's most valuable company?
Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) became the country's second-most valuable company by market cap during the second quarter. All that rests between Steve Jobs and top dog ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) is about $35 billion to $40 billion.

Apple can close the gap by sticking to its winning ways. Its recently wrapped quarter appears to be another gem. The class of Cupertino brilliantly added to its product line during the quarter, moving 3 million iPads in less than three months and 1.7 million iPhone 4 smartphones in the first three days they were on the market.

Shareholders should appreciate consumers' paying a premium for Apple products. Perhaps Wall Street's best-kept secret is that despite Apple's torrid run in recent years, the stock is still reasonably cheap, with a forward earnings multiple in the teens.

ExxonMobil could also meet it halfway by depreciating in value. The recent buzz over electric cars and fuel-efficient hybrids will cap enthusiasm for oil stocks, above and beyond the Gulf spill fallout.

In the end, it will probably have to be Apple doing the heavy lifting to take the market cap crown.  

2. Is the IPO market bouncing back?
It's been a dry couple of years for watchers of the new-issue pipeline, but there's encouraging news on both sides of the 2010 midpoint.

June closed out with a bang, as Tesla Motors (Nasdaq: TSLA) -- the maker of emission-free electric cars -- had an inspiring debut. Now we have China's Agricultural Bank set to go public by mid-July.

AgBank would set a global record if it's able to pull off its roughly $23 billion deal. It could possibly smoke out other private behemoths that have been cowering during the recession.

Come on in, Facebook. The water's fine -- but a little chilly.

3. Are leisure stocks here to stay?
Consumer confidence took a hit last month, tripping up expectations for a leisure industry acting as if an economic recovery was a foregone conclusion.

• After a record year at the box office in 2009, exhibitors raised ticket prices on their 3-D and IMAX (Nasdaq: IMAX) screenings in March.
• Amusement park operator Cedar Fair (NYSE: FUN) shook off an unsolicited buyout bid, believing that it will be worth more after a healthy 2010 summer season.
• Encouraged by strength in passenger bookings, cruise lines began to inch fares higher in a springtime push.

In reality, the economy is sending mixed signals. Unemployment is still at pesky levels, but did you see the queues snaking out of Apple stores during the iPhone 4 rollout?

Watch some of the early indicators here, such as comps at casual dining restaurants and multiplex receipts during summer blockbuster opening weekends. If we're spending, you'll see the discretionary income trickling down there.

4. Can homebuilders turn the corner?
Real estate developers have lately been posting narrower losses -- and occasionally actual profits. A major contributor has been government stimulus in the form of tax credits that recently expired.

In a Pollyanna scenario, the housing industry will follow in the automakers' tread marks. Car manufacturers were jump-started by last summer's Cash for Clunkers campaign, and have gone on to post double-digit sales growth for most of the past few months.

Unfortunately, the homebuilders have to contend with a glut of existing properties with cobwebbed for-sale signs. Low interest rates will help ease the bite of stingier lenders, but this sector still has to prove that it's built to last.

I'm not convinced.

5. What will Google do in China?
Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) is trying to balance its "do no evil" mantra with the booming profit potential of China. The world's leading search engine gained karma points from human rights activists by refusing to filter its search results earlier this year, but now Big G is hinting that it wants to retain a presence in the world's most populous market without angering Chinese regulators by simply redirecting queries out of mainland China.

This is not going to be an easy feat. Even at Google's peak last year, Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) was the runaway market leader in China. Returning to China will either be toothless or hypocritical, but it's better for Google to make a move now than wait until the brand is squeezed dry.

I think most of us were skeptical when Google retreated in the first place.

Care to answer any of these five questions? Share your answers in the comments box below.

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Baidu, Google, and IMAX are Motley Fool Rule Breakers picks. Apple is a Motley Fool Stock Advisor selection. The Fool owns shares of Google. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services, free for 30 days.  

Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz wonders if Mr. Market has a rousing halftime speech to present. He does not own shares in any of the stocks in this story. He is also part of the Rule Breakers newsletter research team, seeking out tomorrow's ultimate growth stocks a day early. The Fool has a disclosure policy.