Weekly Top Stock Idea

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Genco Shipping & Trading Profile

Sources: Capital IQ (a division of Standard & Poor's), Yahoo! Finance, and Motley Fool CAPS.

This Week's Pitch:

Business
Genco Shipping & Trading owns a fleet of drybulk ships consisting of various sizes. As of the last annual report, GNK's fleet consisted of 9 Capesize, 8 Panamax, 4 Supramax, 6 Handymax, and 8 Handysize drybulk carriers for 35 total ships. The ships are mostly under time charter contracts of various lengths that expire in a laddered fashion. These 35 ships have a total capacity of 2.8M dwt (dead weight tons).

Many drybulk shippers have traded way below book value and have been considered potential value traps the entire time. There has been constant mention over the past few years of an oversupply of ships in the industry. Moreover, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), which measures rates for drybulk shipping, is wildly volatile and goes up and down often, pumping up and dragging down the shipping stocks' prices along with it. A decent strategy in 2009 was to rollercoaster shippers. I was in and out of [Euroseas (Nasdaq: ESEA), Paragon (Nasdaq: PRGN), and TBS International (Nasdaq: TBSI)] several times in 2009, most of the time for 5%-15% percent gains.

I became interested in GNK after hearing that the BDI had slumped for 31 straight days. That slump went on for four more days, falling an absurd 35 days in a row. Shippers, whether good or bad, were dragged in the mud this entire time. The recent shipping slump has created an excellent entry point to buy a shipping stock. At the time of my CAPS green thumb, GNK was trading at 4 times trailing earnings, which is ridiculous for a profitable company making moves to make more money in the future.

Growth Strategy
GNK operates a fleet of relatively new ships compared to the industry average. As of the 2009 annual report, its ships had an average age of 7.2 years, compared to the industry average of 15 years. Its oldest ship was built in 1997, making it 13 years old. It's pretty nice to consider that GNK's oldest ships are still younger than the average age for the industry. For reference, the average lifespan of a ship is expected to be 25 years. That can be lengthened or shortened based on maintenance and modernizing practices, I'm sure.

GNK has been acquiring new ships since its inception. Check out the growth of its fleet over the last five years:

2005: 17 ships
2006: 20 ships
2007: 27 ships
2008: 32 ships
2009: 35 ships
2010/2011: 53 ships

The acquisitions of new ships have, however, caused long-term debt to balloon. For the most part, companies seem to use financing and capital market offerings to acquire new ships. Currently, GNK's long-term debt as of the Q1 2010 balance sheet was $1.264B. That debt is almost entirely due to a line of credit from 2007 used to acquire 9 Capesize vessels, which are pretty large vessels.

There is a plan in the works to acquire 18 more ships, 13 Supramax and 5 Handysize vessels. These ships will put the new capacity of the fleet at 3.8M dwt for about a 30% increase. The 13 Supramax vessels will be paid for using a combination of bank debt, senior note and equity offerings, and cash. I figure the 5 Handysize vessels will be paid for using bank debt and cash. 14 of the 18 new ships will be delivered in Q3 2010, and the rest will be delivered in 2011. The acquisitions should put the average age of the fleet at 6.2 years, down from 7.2 years. As far as industry oversupply goes, I don't think GNK's nice, new ships will be vulnerable to being discontinued.

Earnings Discussion
Here are the EPS numbers for 2005 through 2011:

2005: $2.90
2006: $2.51
2007: $4.06
2008: $2.84
2009: $4.73
2010 (19 analysts' avg. prediction): $4.27
2011 (19 analysts' avg. prediction): $2.87

As you can see, earnings have been positive and pretty strong for a sub-$20 stock. Before discussing the above numbers, let's talk fleet utilization. As of 12/31/08, fleet utilization was 98.9%. As of 12/31/09, fleet utilization was 99%. As of 3/31/10, it was 99.6%. There are contracts set to expire from 2010 to 2012, but I'd say GNK is doing a rather fine job finding ways for its ships to make money. I'm not sure I expect such stellar utilization numbers going forward, but I believe it's pretty safe to say GNK's management is no slouch, and utilization rates will not be falling off a cliff any time soon. I'm sure it helps also that GNK's ships are relatively new.

I find it curious that analysts are expecting earnings to plunge so much in 2011. I've looked up estimates on other shippers and almost every other shipper is expected to increase earnings from 2010 to 2011. I saw that the low estimate for GNK in 2011 is $0.54. Based on the fact that the fleet will have 50% more ships, 30% more capacity, and an impressive track record of achieving high fleet utilization, I find it hard to believe the $0.54 estimate. I personally believe GNK's numbers should be more in the $3.00 to $4.00 range in 2011. If GNK can continue to grow and keep fleet utilization high, I believe it can achieve $5 or more in EPS within five years.

Financial Health
GNK makes plenty of money and has increasing long-term debt. $37.5M of the $1.264B is due in 2010 as of the Q1 2010 report, with most of the rest of the debt due in 3+ years. The company shouldn't have problems making debt repayments as necessary as long as it makes money, which I see continuing.

The dividend was cut as a result of a stipulation stemming from the 2007 credit facility that was used to purchase the 9 Capesize vessels. Certain financial criteria must be met before the dividend is reinstated. I'm guessing that once GNK is done purchasing ships at a rapid rate, it will start to make moves to pay down debt. Based on the size of its debt compared to its equity, I believe future dilutions may occur. Still, the P/E multiple assigned to GNK is alarmingly low and would still be acceptable even after a good amount of dilution.

Based on its relatively new fleet and strong earnings numbers, I believe GNK is looking OK going forward.

Risks
There are contracts expiring from 2010 to 2012. Also, 18 new vessels are being acquired, and only six of those have long-term contracts attached. There's always a risk that fleet utilization will go down. Analysts certainly seem to be forecasting a drop in EPS from 2010 to 2011 for GNK but not for other shippers.

Debt levels are quite high. I wouldn't be surprised to see a good bit of dilution in the future.

I'm not convinced of an all-out recovery anytime soon, so shipping rates could remain flat or even crash (even despite recent events). Management tries to reduce the impact of short-term fluctuations, but that's not always possible.

Conclusion
I've seen that the market is quite short-sighted and will often bid a stock to lofty levels based on one or two good years. Based on the current situation, I believe that a company earning over $4 TTM and still making major moves to grow should not be valued under $20. Its stock is mispriced in the short-term, likely caused by the 35 day slump in the BDI.

Longer term, an eventual recovery should see GNK exceeding the $4.73 EPS from 2009, especially with 30% more tonnage capacity in the future. If GNK can pull off $5 in full-year earnings in 2012 or 2013 and the market assigns a multiple of only 7, that's more than a double from current levels. Assigning a multiple of 7 to TTM earnings of $4.48 gives us a value of $31.36 per share.

Three to five years from now, I expect a better economy than we have right now. I expect EPS to exceed $5 at that time. If people are more bullish then, a P/E multiple of 10 would see a price of $50 for GNK. That's not unfathomable considering the high of $84.51 in May 2008 (more than 29 times 2008 earnings). I know that was during the commodity boom, but I'm only asking for a multiple of 10 instead of 29, which I believe is quite reasonable. A multiple of 12-15 is still not unthinkable and would put it in line for considerably more than a triple from the current level.

I believe GNK is both a solid short-term and long-term play. Both profitable and unprofitable drybulk shippers have been slammed with the recent slump in the BDI. I expect a short-term bounce of 20% to 50% and a possible triple or more within five years. Management has done a good job with fleet utilization, achieving almost 100% as of Q1 2010. The growth is quite aggressive, but I believe the acquisitions will contribute nicely to future earnings as long as the debt level is contained.

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