Second-quarter GDP growth was revised down to 1.6%, from the initially reported 2.4%.
This sounds god-awful, like we're on the brink of a double-dip recession. And maybe we are. But this revision isn't as bad as it might seem.
For one, the numbers were revised down due to imports coming in much stronger than originally anticipated, which is a sign of strong consumer demand. But since this is gross domestic product we're talking about, stuff the Bureau of Economic Analysis (the agency that calculates these numbers) originally counted as domestic production turned out to be shipped in from abroad. And so down we go.
Also, these slowdowns are not in the least bit rare. Here's how GDP growth fared in the six quarters after recessions ended in the past:
Real GDP growth after recession officially ended
|
Recession |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q5 |
Q6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1948-49 |
4.6% |
(3.7%) |
17.2% |
12.7% |
16.6% |
7.2% |
|
1953-54 |
0.5% |
4.6% |
8.3% |
12% |
6.8% |
5.4% |
|
1957-58 |
2.5% |
9.7% |
9.7% |
8.3% |
10.5% |
(0.5%) |
|
1960-61 |
7.7% |
6.6% |
8.4% |
7.4% |
4.5% |
3.7% |
|
1969-70 |
0.7% |
3.6% |
(4.2%) |
11.5% |
2.3% |
3.2% |
|
1973-75 |
3.1% |
6.9% |
5.3% |
9.4% |
3% |
2% |
|
1980 |
7.6% |
8.6% |
(3.2%) |
5% |
(4.9%) |
(6.4%) |
|
1981-82 |
0.3% |
5.1% |
9.3% |
8.1% |
8.5% |
8% |
|
1990-91 |
2.7% |
1.7% |
1.6% |
4.5% |
4.3% |
4.2% |
|
2001 |
3.5% |
2.1% |
2% |
0.1% |
1.6% |
3.2% |
Source: Intermarket Forecasting.
It's not uncommon at all to have growth slow way down, if not outright contract, during recovery periods after recessions (assuming our recession already ended, which many disagree with).
Unfortunately, GDP growth is, I think, a much overhyped number that means exactly nothing to everyday people, especially the unemployed. If recessions and recoveries are judged by employment, and they should be, then it's still bad out there, no matter what the GDP figures say.
What stays important, however, is focusing your investments on finding good, solid, cheap companies. And these seem in abundant supply today. From Intel
