Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: Fertilizer specialist China Agritech
So what: The USDA forecast a 2010-2011 corn crop well below expectations issued just a month ago, prompted by unfavorable Midwest weather conditions. Naturally, a disappointing harvest should push fertilizer prices higher in coming months, benefiting the likes of CF Industries
Now what: If you're yearning to play those favorable demand forces, there are safer ways to do it than with China Agritech. While the company took part in today's big agricultural rally, its status as a Chinese start-up makes me, along with several other Fools, a little bit nervous. With so many well-established, free cash flow-generating names in the space, China Agritech's risks just don't seem worth it.
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