There's no doubt that Activision Blizzard (Nasdaq: ATVI) has a hit on its hands with Call of Duty: Black Ops.
Even Toys "R" Us joined GameStop (NYSE: GME), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), and Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) in holding a midnight release this morning. Why should kid-friendly Geoffrey the giraffe stick his neck out to actively promote a game rated "M for Mature"? Credit the captive hold that Activision Blizzard's military franchise has on gamers of all ages.
Still, despite a promising start for Black Ops, there are more than a few reasons for Activision Blizzard shareholders to temper their enthusiasm over today's release:
- Even if Black Ops is a hit -- which seems all but certain -- keep in mind that it will be pitted on the earnings calendar against last November's release of Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2, which broke initial sales records.
- Industry sales have been generally sluggish, so momentum isn't in Activision Blizzard's favor. Gamers are spending less on conventional games.
- Activision Blizzard may have dodged a bullet when Electronic Arts' (Nasdaq: ERTS) rival shooter Medal of Honor received mixed reviews last month.
- Microsoft's (Nasdaq: MSFT) Kinect rollout sucks gaming dollars out of Xbox 360 owners -- the most popular platform for previous Call of Duty games.
That last point bears fleshing out. Folks aren't just paying $150 for the Kinect motion-based controller. They'll also be shelling out roughly $50 for Kinect-based games. Even in the mad scramble of Black Ops orders last night, half of Amazon's 10 best-selling video game items were Kinect-related.
Black Ops will be a big hit. Unfortunately, Activision Blizzard may need more than a blockbuster, given its recent meandering ways.
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