Numbers can lie -- but they're the best first step in determining whether a stock is a buy. In this series, we use some carefully chosen metrics to size up a stock's true value based on the following clues:
- The current price multiples
- The consistency of past earnings and cash flow
- How much growth we can expect
Let's see what those numbers can tell us about how cheap steel producer Nucor
The current price multiples
First, we'll look at most investors' favorite metric: the P/E ratio. It divides the company's share price by its earnings per share (EPS) -- the lower, the better.
Then, we'll take things up a notch with a more advanced metric: enterprise value to unlevered free cash flow. This divides the company's enterprise value (basically, its market cap plus its debt, minus its cash) by its unlevered free cash flow (its free cash flow, adding back the interest payments on its debt). Like the P/E, the lower this number is, the better.
Analysts argue about which is more important -- earnings or cash flow. Who cares? A good buy ideally has low multiples on both.
Nucor has a P/E ratio of 62.4 and an EV/FCF ratio of 61.5 over the trailing 12 months. If we stretch and compare current valuations to the five-year averages for earnings and free cash flow, Nucor has a P/E ratio of 12.1 and a five-year EV/FCF ratio of 11.8.
A one-year ratio under 10 for both metrics is ideal. For a five-year metric, under 20 is ideal.
Nucor has a mixed performance in hitting the ideal targets, but let's see how it compares against some competitors and industry mates.
|
Company |
1-Year P/E |
1-Year EV/FCF |
5-Year P/E |
5-Year EV/FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nucor |
62.4 |
61.5 |
12.1 |
11.8 |
|
United States Steel |
NM |
NM |
12.3 |
27.3 |
|
Steel Dynamics |
21.6 |
46.6 |
11.1 |
35.7 |
|
Commercial Metals |
NM |
NM |
11.0 |
28.2 |
Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's; NM = not meaningful.
Numerically, we've seen how Nucor's valuation rates on both an absolute and relative basis. Next, let's examine...
The consistency of past earnings and cash flow
An ideal company will be consistently strong in its earnings and cash flow generation.
In the past five years, Nucor's net income margin has ranged from -2% to 11.7%. In that same time frame, unlevered free cash flow margin has ranged from 1.6% to 13.6%.
How do those figures compare with those of the company's peers? See for yourself:
Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's; margin ranges are combined.
Additionally, over the past five years, Nucor has tallied up four years of positive earnings and fiveyears of positive free cash flow.
Next, let's figure out...
How much growth we can expect
Analysts tend to comically overstate their five-year growth estimates. If you accept them at face value, you will overpay for stocks. But while you should definitely take the analysts' prognostications with a grain of salt, they can still provide a useful starting point when compared to similar numbers from a company's closest rivals.
Let's start by seeing what this company's done over the past five years. In that time period, Nucor has put up past EPS growth rates of -31%. Here's how Nucor compares to its peers for trailing five-year growth (due to unprofitability, the growth rates for US Steel and Commercial Metals are meaningless):
Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's; EPS growth shown.
However, per Yahoo! Finance, analysts expect 15% growth from Nucor with its competitors ranging from 8% (Commercial Metals) to 30% (US Steel).
The bottom line
The pile of numbers we've plowed through has shown us how cheap shares of Nucor are trading, how consistent its performance has been, and what kind of growth profile it has -- both on an absolute and a relative basis.
The more consistent a company's performance has been and the more growth we can expect, the more we should be willing to pay. We've gone well beyond looking at a 62.4 P/E ratio.
My Foolish colleague Jordan DiPietro recently made his case for why Nucor's a buy. Remember that steel is a cyclical business -- which is why the 5-year multiples look a lot cheaper than the 1-year multiples.
If you also find Nucor's numbers compelling, don't stop. Continue your due diligence process until you're confident that the initial numbers aren't lying to you.
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