Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of specialty retailer Cost Plus (Nasdaq: CPWM) jumped nearly 13% in intraday trading as investors reacted to an analyst upgrade.

So what: Today's gains followed a big day on Friday when shares tacked on 35% after a better-than-expected third-quarter earnings report. The stock was able to build on that huge leap thanks to a very bullish note from Raymond James analyst Budd Bugatch, who boosted his fourth-quarter earnings per share estimate for Cost Plus from $0.48 to $1.08 and took his full-year view from a $0.60 loss to a $0.10 profit. He also maintained a "strong buy" on the stock and slapped on a $10 price target.

Now what: It's been a pretty odd retail environment lately with Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) sales getting squeezed while upper-end retailers like Saks (NYSE: SKS) and Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) have seen their fortunes move in precisely the opposite direction. Where does Cost Plus fit into all of this? Actually, the company's currently more of a turnaround story akin to its competitor Pier 1 Imports (NYSE: PIR), and so its fortunes will hinge as much on continued momentum from turnaround efforts as on consumer spending. Pier 1 seems to have turned over a new leaf, and Cost Plus' recent quarter shows definite progress toward doing the same. The work's certainly not done yet, but this could be a company to keep an eye on.

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