Although we don’t believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes—just in case they’re material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of regional grocery chain SUPERVALU (NYSE: SVU) are trading as much as 11.2% higher today on about twice the average volume.

So what: As retail compatriot BJ's Wholesale Club (NYSE: BJ) put itself up for auction, buyout chatter started spreading around SUPERVALU as well. Given a huge short position in the stock, it doesn't take much of an upward push to motivate a few shorters to close their positions in a panic, moving the price even higher.

Now what: The buyout rumors were powerful enough to overcome bad news out of the Midwest, where Target (NYSE: TGT) no longer needs the grocery distribution services SUPERVALU provides. Fellow Fool Jim Mueller recently put some real money into this stock, based on the complete lack of faith investors have in the operation. On days like this, Jim's contrarian strategy looks pretty darn smart.

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