Your expectations can use a refresh button.
Now that most companies have filed away their 2010 financial performances, we can begin diving into fiscal projections for this year -- and for 2012.
It's no longer a stretch. The term "next year's earnings" now refers to 2012, and you may be amazed at how quickly some of the market's seemingly overpriced players are growing. Loftier profit targets translate into lower forward P/E multiples.
I took a look at five stocks last week and another five the week before. Let's try a few more.
|
Company |
Close |
This Year P/E |
Next Year P/E |
My Watchlist |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
NVIDIA |
$19.32 |
19 |
15 |
|
|
Crocs |
$17.40 |
17 |
13 |
|
|
Apple |
$350.44 |
15 |
13 |
|
|
SodaStream |
$41.74 |
47 |
34 |
|
|
Green Mountain |
$62.70 |
51 |
35 |
Source: Yahoo! Finance. NVIDIA's fiscal year ends in January. Apple's and Green Mountain's fiscal year ends in September.
Valuation is only a number
Many of these multiples -- even those clocking in for next year -- are chunky. You don't often hear something along the lines of "this stock is so cheap that it's trading for a mere 35 times next year's projected profitability."
Then again, there is more to this basket of presumably pricey stocks than meets the cynical eye.
NVIDIA is the graphics pioneer that's making major headway with its Tegra chip in the smartphone and tablet space. Along with its stronghold in traditional laptops and PCs as well as its Tesla chip in supercomputing, this isn't just about PC gamers.
NVIDIA posted sequential revenue and gross margin improvement during last month's fiscal fourth-quarter report. It sees continued sequential improvement on both fronts for the current quarter. It also cleared the litigious air with Intel
Most investors left Crocs for dead a couple of years ago. Its eclectic looking resin shoes seemed to be a passive craze. Fads die, but Crocs got smarter. A wider product line and a strong overseas push find Crocs growing its top line at a healthy double-digit pace and with a forward earnings multiple in the teens.
Apple isn't going to sneak up on anyone these days. The Cupertino giant is the country's second most valuable company in terms of market cap. Its annual refreshes of Macs, iPhones, iPods, and iPads continue to draw larger crowds.
Everybody knows about Apple. It seems as if nearly everyone owns Apple. Did you know that the stock is trading at a mere 13 times next year's bottom-line target?
SodaStream is the company giving flavored sodas a healthy and eco spin with its battery-free water carbonation systems. It may seem like a novelty item, but SodaStream has now surpassed 20% market penetration in Sweden, and it accompanied last year's IPO with a strong stateside push.
SodaStream sold 712,000 of its pop makers during the holiday quarter. It's not just about the eye-friendly portable appliances. SodaStream commands even larger markups on the carbonator refills and soda syrups.
SodaStream's beverage model is a kissing cousin to java darling Green Mountain Coffee Roasters with its Keurig brewers and K-Cup refills.
It's true that Green Mountain has gone on a torrid run since inking a deal with Starbucks
In other words, Green Mountain is growing at a faster clip than its seemingly lofty multiples.
Adding it up
None of these stocks are immune to a market meltdown. If you're looking for bulwarks, you'll have to find them somewhere else.
These investments are high-beta growth stocks, and will likely remain that way for several more years. The key here, though, is that they aren't as expensive as pundits make them out to be.
It's the opportunity that you didn't know that you were waiting for.
Interested in reading more about any of these stocks? Add them to My Watchlist to find all of our Foolish analysis. And if you like these five stocks, check out the six stocks that Tom and David Gardner think you should be watching in a free special report.
