Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) increased 3.7% yesterday as the company raised 2011 guidance by $0.10 on either side of the range. The start of a comeback? Let's do the math.
Dive deeper into that $0.10 raise and we see that $0.08 of it was due to currency changes. Johnson & Johnson is benefiting from a weaker dollar, which increases sales in foreign currencies when they're translated back into U.S. dollar. Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) said it experienced the same increase in revenue, but that costs denominated in foreign currencies counteracted much of the increase. Apparently that's not as true for Johnson & Johnson, but it's not like the company did anything to deserve the bump in earnings nor can it count on the currency level continuing.
That still leaves $0.02 of operational gain, but the company will get about $0.05 from its settlement with Merck (NYSE: MRK) over Remicade and Simponi this year. Last time I checked, five was more than two, which means that there's actually a new negative effect on earnings.
The culprit? Recalls, of course. While the Food and Drug Administration consent decree didn't come with any up-front fines, the third-party overlord checking the consumer health-care products will slow down shipments and cause additional costs to the tune of $0.06 per share.
What if none of these things had happened? Subtract out the benefits and add back the negative items: $0.10-$0.08-$0.05+$0.06 and it appears Johnson & Johnson thinks it'll be about $0.03 per share better off this year than it did three months ago.
That's less than a 1% increase over the previous guidance. Better than nothing, but I don't think Johnson & Johnson and its investors are out of the woods just yet. The company needs to get its manufacturing on target and then earn back consumer health-care customers that it has lost to Bayer, Merck, Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), and generic drug-maker Perrigo (Nasdaq: PRGO).
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