Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: It's not often you see a stock surprise the market with a profit, when it was expected to show a loss. Rarer still do you see this happen, and then watch the stock sell off by more than 10%. But that's just what happened today at temp service TrueBlue
So what: Just because everyone else is dumping the shares doesn't necessarily mean anything. After all, the company beat Street estimates on sales and earnings. About the only "bad" news we got today was that TrueBlue might miss analyst projections for $0.20 per share next quarter.
Now what: Well and good. But take the $0.02 that TrueBlue earned in the first quarter, and add to it the $0.17 midpoint on next quarter's guidance, and what do you get? $0.19 per share, which is still ahead of the $0.18 Wall Street was expecting TrueBlue to earn in H1 2011.
In short, any way you look at it, TrueBlue is ahead of the game right now. It's well positioned to meet or beat consensus projections for $0.69 in profits this year. And while I personally don't think that's enough to justify the stock's $15 price, anyone who thought it was priced correctly yesterday, has absolutely no reason to change their mind today.
Is Rich right? Could TrueBlue still satisfy Wall Street's long-term expectations this year? Add it to your Watchlist, and find out.