Investors in mobile data organizer Motricity (Nasdaq: MOTR) better have bellies of stainless steel, lest we'd see an epidemic of congestive ulceritis. But given the lead belly required, Motricity could be a tremendous buy.
Motricity turned a much-ballyhooed IPO into serious stock returns in 2010, more than tripling in price between the June launch and late November. But the stock cooled off quickly after hitting that high-water mark, propelled downward by dilution as the stock's underwriters became active sellers.
That's how the IPO game is played -- wait for the lock-up period to expire, then hope to unload those precious shares for a serious profit while the getting is good. Vonage Holdings (NYSE: VG) never had a chance to play that game because the stock cratered right after the IPO, but the plan works often enough. It happened to Qlik Technologies (Nasdaq: QLIK) last year and to Motricity in 2011, for example.
But from the deepest depressions come the bounciest rebounds. Vonage still hasn't recovered to the original IPO price after losing nearly 97% of its value at worst, but a 1,200% rebound from 2009 lows is nothing to sneeze at -- unless you're allergic to mindblowing returns.
Likewise, Qlik's much milder sell-off as underwriters cashed in on its early success created a buy-in opportunity. Fellow Fool Sean Sun opened a real-money Qlik position back in February and has enjoyed a market-crushing 23% return so far.
So the question for Motricity investors today is: Should its 37% negative return year-to-date along with a 10% drop today be treated as a buy-in opportunity -- or should you run for the exits, screaming in terror?
Last night's first-quarter report was hardly terrifying. Revenue rose 11% year-over-year to $32.2 million, just below the Street's target at $32.6 million. Non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.03 was three times the analyst consensus. And the second-quarter sales forecast is right in line with expectations.
Motricity has only just begun telling its international growth story and expects double-digit domestic growth throughout 2011 as well. The stock sells for less than 12 times forward earnings today, right in line with chief rival Amdocs (NYSE: DOX) but with much higher growth potential.
That's hardly grounds for a 13% overnight drop, especially given the lack of a speculative price boost leading into the report. But that's what happened.
This may not be the very bottom of Motricity's keelhauling, but it's close enough to pique my interest. I'm slapping an "outperform" rating on Motricity in CAPS, as I expect the mobile data handler to pad my all-star status over the next two to four years. With any luck, Motricity should follow the bouncebacks delivered by Vonage and Qlik. Click here to follow along or to voice your opposition with an "underperform" rating. It's a free world, baby.
