Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: Do you know which clothing stock just gained 12% in a few short hours of trading? No need to guess: It's Guess?
So what: No need to guess about the reasons for the pop, either. Yesterday, the company reported fiscal first-quarter earnings well ahead of estimates and confirmed that the Street's estimates for next quarter's revenues and profits are in the ballpark, and maybe even a bit conservative. Add in an upgrade from Piper Jaffray this morning, and it was like waving a red skirt-jacket combo in front of the bulls.
Now what: Guess? is predicting it will wind up this year with about $3.40 per share worth of profit in its pocket -- leaving little doubt why Piper upgraded it. This works out to a stock selling for barely 13 times the profit it will make this year, yet expected to keep on growing at nearly 14% per year for the next half-decade.
If there were only one thing I could wish to see in the company's report that wasn't there, it would be free cash flow that backs up the company's earnings story. Instead, Guess? reported FCF that lagged its reported "profits" by more than 20%. So if you ... surmise ... that I won't be joining the bull rush on this one, you're right about that.
Bears versus Bulls -- who will carry the day? Add Guess? to your Watchlist and find out.