In late April, we asked three Fool contributors what Sirius XM (Nasdaq: SIRI) had to do to get its share price above $2.00. Most of their responses contained something of a similar theme: Sirius XM 2.0 is going to have to be the kind of service that really moves the needle.
Well, in retrospect, the new Sirius rollout didn't even have to arrive -- Sirius floated well above $2.00 per share for quite some time, closing at $2.37 in late May. However, now it's back down in the $2.00 range, so we decided to go back and check with our analysts to see exactly how revolutionary Sirius 2.0 really needs to be.
Anders Bylund, Fool contributor
If there were awards for worst-kept secret of the year, Sirius 2.0 would win 'em all hands down. It's like Netflix going overseas or Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) launching a cloud-based music service -- we all know it's coming and have been talking about it for years. While the exact feature set of Sirius 2.0 in the shipping version is up in the air, the only question that matters to us investors is, how successful will it be?
All three examples here are potential game-changers. Netflix can collect untold millions of subscribers abroad, Apple needs a next-generation music service in order to stay relevant, and Sirius lives and dies by how its customers respond to version 2.0.
Depending on exactly which rumors pan out, the new Sirius service could become a radio version of the TiVo (Nasdaq: TIVO) DVR or even a satellite-based take on Pandora's personalized media feeds. Either option would move Sirius a large step closer to state-of-the-art entertainment features of today's smartphones, and with a much smaller bandwidth hit.
So yeah, Sirius 2.0 will change the game -- but everyone already expects it to. It would take a feature set of surprisingly epic proportions to move the stock very far north when it's announced. Otherwise, the true value (or lack thereof) becomes evident over the long haul.
Rick Aristotle Munarriz, Fool contributor
Sirius XM 2.0 will reportedly be an Android-fueled platform with more channels, TiVo-style time shifting, and on-demand features of its more popular programming. The key is what it will do with Google's (Nasdaq: GOOG) Android to raise the bar.
The dashboard's getting pretty crowded these days, especially for smartphone owners. Toyota's (NYSE: TM) Entune streams Pandora, maps out roadways, and even facilitates the making of dining reservations and the buying of movie tickets.
As premium radio, Sirius XM will need to make sure that it's better than the growing number of free Bluetooth-enabled options for smartphones. It will be an easier bar to clear for drivers lacking smartphone connectivity, but that's a gradually shrinking market.
Sirius XM 2.0 will have to be revolutionary -- and not just evolutionary -- to move the needle. CEO Mel Karmazin has to know that much, and it's probably why so little about the next generation of satellite radio receivers is concrete. This is an unfinished platform that will have to be huge given the inevitable subscription plan rate hike coming next year.
If Sirius XM 2.0 can build on Android to create an irreplaceable experience, conversions will go up, churn will go down, and the share price will go way up.
Tim Beyers, Fool contributor
Oh, why didn't I take my own advice? Back in October I picked Sirius to outperform in my Motley Fool CAPS portfolio. The stock is up more than 50% since, and we've yet to see Sirius introduce its much-ballyhooed 2.0 radio platform.
There's a lot to like about what Sirius is planning. New channels. Time shifting. And finally, Android support. All of it points to Sirius XM transforming your radio into an applications and delivery hub not unlike Apple's iPhone. Sound crazy? Maybe it is.
Whether or not Sirius is gunning to replace smartphone and Garmin (Nasdaq: GRMN) connection kits with radio 2.0, I think this hypergrowth stock is still reasonably priced at 29 times next year's consensus earnings estimate.
What do you think? Is Sirius 2.0 able to boost the company's stock or is it all priced in? Let us know in the comments below.
