Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: On Wednesday, Deutsche Bank gave an upgrade to Western Refining (NYSE: WNR), leaving shares worth 11% more than they were the day before.

So what: The German banker sees disparities between the cost of Brent crude oil and West Texas Intermediate crude widening, and believes this benefits Western Re. Not exactly a new theory, but it's worked out before.

Now what: Similar comments from RBC Capital Markets back in February presaged strong stock performance for Western Re, which has nearly tripled in the past 52 weeks. Now Deutsche's telling us this party's just getting started -- and it just might be right. Deutsche's calls on oil & gas stocks prove correct roughly 55% of the time, and beat the market's returns soundly. With Western Re selling for barely 8.4 times free cash flow today, I'd say the odds favor this barrel continuing to roll.

Does Deutsche know oil? Add Western Refining to your Watchlist and see how this one works out.

Fool contributor Rich Smith does not own (or short) any company named above, but The Motley Fool owns shares of Western Refining. Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.