I went out on a limb last week with pretty good results.
- I predicted that GameStop (NYSE: GME) shares would fall on Thursday. They did. The video game retailer's stock slipped 3% after the company posted uninspiring quarterly results and once again revised its guidance lower.
- Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN) hit the market with its Kindle Fire last week. I figured that Amazon wouldn't divulge the actual number of units sold, a contrast to what the Cupertino fruit company loves to do with every iRollout. I was right. This was a bit of a softball forecast, though I do believe that we'll eventually get to the point where Amazon's bragging rights come with tangible numbers.
- My final call was for NetEase.com (Nasdaq: NTES) to climb on Thursday after posting quarterly results on Wednesday night. It did. The Chinese gaming pioneer has trounced Wall Street's profit targets in the past few quarters, and it did so again.
This is the first time since I started these weekly predictions that I got all three right, but I promise it won't get to my head.
Let me once again whip out my trusty, dusty, and occasionally accurate crystal ball to make three calls that may play out over the next few trading days.
1. Pandora's stock will rise on Wednesday.
Pandora Media (NYSE: P) has had a wild ride since going public earlier this year. The popular music-streaming website went from being a hot IPO to being summarily dismissed by the market as an overpriced dot-com with a questionable model.
Analysts, investors, and the shares have started to come around. Pandora's popularity -- through both its website and its mobile app -- has been booming. In a brilliant move last week ahead of next year's meaty elections, Pandora let strategists know that they can reach listeners down to their actual ZIP codes through Pandora.
Wall Street sees a small deficit out of Pandora. I think the music site may break even, but my prediction will be solely based on the market's reaction to a report that should have stellar growth and a bit of swagger when it comes to its ad-targeting possibilities.
2. TiVo will continue to shed net subscribers.
TiVo (Nasdaq: TIVO) reports on Tuesday. The DVR pioneer has a problem. It continues to lose more subscribers than it signs up. It's been this way for some time, and it's a safe bet that it will continue.
The trend is improving. TiVo shed just 33,000 net subscribers in its latest quarter, a welcome deceleration from the 456,000 net defections that it has faced over the past year. I like the way that indicator is moving, but I still believe that TiVo will continue to have a hard time wooing new DVR users when so many people are deciding to stream shows on their terms instead of having to remember to record them first.
3. Perfect World will beat Wall Street's earnings estimates tonight.
Chinese online gaming company Perfect World (Nasdaq: PWRD) reports third-quarter results tonight. It's been a good quarter for the niche, as three of its four publicly traded peers have already posted stronger net income than what the pros were targeting.
Save for one sloppy quarter, I also like how Perfect World has been trouncing analyst estimates over the past year.
One of my best tricks for beating the market is finding stocks that perpetually land ahead of the prognosticators. Let's go over Perfect World's past year of earnings reports.
|
Quarter |
EPS Estimate |
EPS |
Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2011 | $0.59 | $0.92 | 56% |
| Q1 2011 | $0.55 | $0.76 | 38% |
| Q4 2010 | $0.53 | $0.36 | (32%) |
| Q3 2010 | $0.53 | $0.60 | 13% |
Source: Thomson Reuters.
Everything seems to be falling into place for another strong quarter out of Perfect World.
Well, that's three predictions right there. Let's see how I fare this week.
If you want to see how these market calls pan out, consider adding TiVo, Perfect World, and Pandora Media to My Watchlist to track upcoming news.
