Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: Shares of mobile equipment specialist Sauer-Danfoss
So what: Sauer-Danfoss shares have been on fire over the past few months, but weak fourth-quarter results -- EPS of just $0.57 versus $2.60 in the year-ago period -- is forcing Mr. Market to sober up a bit. Management cited big sales declines in Europe and China -- 9% and 30%, respectively -- as the main culprits, suggesting that Sauer-Danfoss isn't as immune to global weakness as investors had thought.
Now what: Looking ahead, management offered a cautious 2012 outlook of $4.00-$5.00 in EPS on revenue growth of 0%-12%. "While our sales in the Americas remain strong, the situation in Europe is uncertain, with many economists forecasting a mild recession," CEO Sven Ruder said. "Business activity in China remains at a very low level. We continue to hear of loosening up, but are still to see any new financing to impact our markets and subsequently our business." With the stock still up nearly 100% from its early October lows, however, I'd wait for more of that uncertainty to get baked into the price before jumping in.
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