The last time Oracle
But investors have forgiven Oracle for that miss. Share prices are back to where they were before that fateful miss. Oracle reports third-quarter results on Tuesday night. Is everything hunky-dory once again, or are investors just setting themselves up for more heartbreak?
First off, let's do a quick reality check. Oracle's surge simply mirrors the bounce in the Nasdaq Composite index over the past three months. Investors have hardly cut Oracle any more slack than they're giving to other tech stocks nowadays. Depending on your personal analysis and assumptions, that tech-sector rise could be a solid sign of recovery or a bubble just looking for a needle. I take the longer, more bullish view: Tech spending is overdue for a big rebound that never quite happened after the 2008 financial crisis.
On that note, analysts expect earnings to rise just 4% year over year to $0.56 per share on a 2.5% revenue boost to $9.0 billion. That's on the low end of Oracle's own guidance; at the high end, we might see EPS of $0.58 per share on sales of $9.3 billion.
According to Safra Catz, Oracle's CFO, several large orders that didn't make it into the disappointing second quarter simply moved back to the third. That's a reasonable explanation. However, smaller business-software rival TIBCO Software
In that light, I'm not sure that Oracle will see as many simple deadline slides as management thought. Some of those missing contracts will still show up on milk cartons when Oracle spills the beans.
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Fool contributor Anders Bylund holds no position in any of the companies mentioned. The Motley Fool owns shares of Oracle. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of TIBCO Software. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools don't all hold the same opinion, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. Check out Anders' holdings and bio, or follow him on Twitter and Google+. We have a disclosure policy.