Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of packaging supplier Greif (NYSE: GEF) rose 10% today after the company announced fiscal-third-quarter earnings.

So what: Revenue fell 2% to $1.1 billion and net income fell 39% to $40.7 million, or an adjusted $0.75 per share, in the third quarter but the expectations were worse. Analyst only expected earnings per share of $0.72 and revenue was in-line with expectations.

Now what: This is a classic case of expectations being lower than the actual results. Even though operating conditions got worse for Greif, the results beat the bar investors had set and that's why the stock is popping today.

Despite the good results for last quarter, I wouldn't jump on the bandwagon today. Management said that volumes would be lower than expected for the rest of the year, and with the stock trading at 16 times fiscal 2012's expected earnings, I'm not seeing this as a value today.

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This article represents the opinion of the writer, who may disagree with the “official” recommendation position of a Motley Fool premium advisory service. We’re motley! Questioning an investing thesis -- even one of our own -- helps us all think critically about investing and make decisions that help us become smarter, happier, and richer.