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The Gory Details on Fresh Market's Double Fumble

By Seth Jayson - Updated Apr 10, 2017 at 1:58PM

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Just the facts, Fool.

Fresh Market (Nasdaq: TFM) filed its 10-K on March 27. Here are the numbers you need to know.

The 10-second takeaway
For the quarter ended Jan. 27 (Q4), Fresh Market missed estimates on revenues and missed estimates on earnings per share.

Compared to the prior-year quarter, revenue expanded significantly. GAAP earnings per share expanded.

Gross margins expanded, operating margins shrank, net margins contracted.

Revenue details
Fresh Market tallied revenue of $369.9 million. The 14 analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ predicted sales of $380.7 million on the same basis. GAAP reported sales were 15% higher than the prior-year quarter's $320.8 million.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
EPS came in at $0.43. The 14 earnings estimates compiled by S&P Capital IQ predicted $0.44 per share. GAAP EPS of $0.43 for Q4 were 13% higher than the prior-year quarter's $0.38 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Margin details
For the quarter, gross margin was 34.0%, 30 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 8.3%, 90 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 5.6%, 10 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. (Margins calculated in GAAP terms.)

Looking ahead
Next quarter's average estimate for revenue is $370.3 million. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.44.

Next year's average estimate for revenue is $1.54 billion. The average EPS estimate is $1.55.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a two-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 132 members out of 148 rating the stock outperform, and 16 members rating it underperform. Among 41 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 34 give Fresh Market a green thumbs-up, and seven give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on Fresh Market is outperform, with an average price target of $57.60.

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