Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility

After Breaking $400, Is Apple Headed to $320?

By Evan Niu, CFA – Apr 17, 2013 at 11:55PM

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

One Apple bear who called the peak last year is now predicting that the Mac maker has even more downside to go.

The Apple (AAPL -1.96%) sell-off today has been utterly hopeless, with shares breaking through $400 for the first time in more than a year. The last time shares were worth less than four Benjamins was before Christmas 2011. Still, is even more pain in store? Could Apple head to $320 next?

That's the case that Creative Global is laying out, with founder and analyst Carlo Besenius adding insult to injury to Apple investors today. Besenius reads the charts, which tell him that $380 is a support level from a technical analysis standpoint, but he thinks the true bottom is even lower. Decelerating sales, deteriorating margins, and intensifying competition could push shares all the way down to $320 in the coming months.

Besenius' claim to fame is when he downgraded Apple to "sell" last October before shares cratered from all-time highs. Specifically, shares were trading around $685 at the time of his call, and two months later he assigned the Mac maker a price target of $420. In February, Besenius further dropped his price target to $320, so today's research note is more of a reiteration of that previous premonition.

I'd normally say that at $320, Apple would be trading at 7.3 times earnings or that its cash position would equal 46% of its market cap, but recent history shows that Apple's fundamentals are futile, since the stock trades purely on momentum and emotion these days.

The news that Cirrus Logic (CRUS -2.37%) expects lower iDevice volumes has caused both companies to plunge today. The data coming out of the audio-chip specialist lends some credibility to Besenius' pessimism, since Apple was responsible for 91% of sales in the previous quarter. iPhone weakness could definitely manifest itself in Cirrus Logic's results.

Not long ago, the idea that Apple might trade at $320 would have seemed ludicrous, in part because of the fundamentals. These days, anything seems possible, as Apple's upcoming earnings and difficult June guidance could further terrify investors into dumping their shares, while fundamental valuation will continue to be meaningless.

Fool contributor Evan Niu, CFA, owns shares of Apple. The Motley Fool recommends Apple and owns shares of Apple and Cirrus Logic. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Invest Smarter with The Motley Fool

Join Over 1 Million Premium Members Receiving…

  • New Stock Picks Each Month
  • Detailed Analysis of Companies
  • Model Portfolios
  • Live Streaming During Market Hours
  • And Much More
Get Started Now

Stocks Mentioned

Apple Stock Quote
Apple
AAPL
$148.11 (-1.96%) $-2.96
Cirrus Logic Stock Quote
Cirrus Logic
CRUS
$75.11 (-2.37%) $-1.82

*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.

Related Articles

Motley Fool Returns

Motley Fool Stock Advisor

Market-beating stocks from our award-winning analyst team.

Stock Advisor Returns
356%
 
S&P 500 Returns
118%

Calculated by average return of all stock recommendations since inception of the Stock Advisor service in February of 2002. Returns as of 11/26/2022.

Discounted offers are only available to new members. Stock Advisor list price is $199 per year.

Premium Investing Services

Invest better with The Motley Fool. Get stock recommendations, portfolio guidance, and more from The Motley Fool's premium services.