Why Silicon Graphics Shares Soared

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of Silicon Graphics (NASDAQ:SGI) are up by roughly 8% today after having risen as much as 15% by midday. The fluctuations of today's pop seem to be based on swings between a strong earnings report from the company and a bit of underwhelming forward guidance.

So what: Silicon Graphics' fiscal third quarter clocked in with $232.6 million in revenue and $0.18 in earnings per share, which bested on both counts Wall Street's expectations of $214.7 million in revenue and $0.14 in EPS. However, guidance of $170 million to $185 million in revenue and $0.12 to $0.17 in EPS for the fiscal fourth quarter was a double disappointment -- analysts were looking for $190.7 million on the top line and $0.17 in EPS.

Now what: This might be a rational response, assuming Silicon Graphics remains in positive free cash flow territory. Although the company unprofitable on a GAAP basis, its price-to-free-cash-flow ratio (as of the second quarter) was about 15 after the pop, so there may be a bit of upside left. Silicon Graphics execs say they've "completed the last of the low-margin deals," which is good news -- but it's not quite enough clarity yet, and full-year revenue estimates of approximately $775 million are actually lower than fiscal 2012's result. Add this company to your watchlist and keep digging deeper.

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