I went out on a limb last week, and now it's time to see how that decision played out.
- I predicted that NQ Mobile (NYSE: NQ) would move higher on the week. The Chinese provider of Internet services was slammed earlier this month on a scathing critique of its accounting, but with NQ reporting earnings, I figured it would have the chance to tell its side of the story and bounce back. The stock surged early in the week in anticipation of the report. It did sell off after the report, but not by enough to offset earlier gains in the week. I was right.
- I predicted that the tech-heavy Nasdaq would outperform the Dow Jones Industrial Average. (^DJI 1.01%). This has been a tricky call lately, so how did it play out this time? Well, this was a great week for stocks. The Nasdaq moved 1.7% higher, beating out to the Dow and its 1.3% gain. I was right.
- My final call was for Vipshop (VIPS +0.06%) to beat Wall Street's income estimates in its latest quarter. The fast-growing provider of apparel flash sales in China had consistently beaten bottom-line expectations over the past year, and I was banking on a repeat performance. It didn't disappoint, serving up an adjusted profit of $0.26 a share, blowing past the $0.21 a share the pros were forecasting. I was right.
Three out of three? I can get used to this!
Let me once again whip out my trusty, dusty, and occasionally accurate crystal ball to make three calls that may play out over the next few trading days.
1. Marvell Technology will move higher on the week
Marvell Technology Group (MRVL 0.76%) has been on fire lately. The stock hit a fresh 52-week high on Wednesday, nearly doubling so far in 2013. It's heading into an important quarterly report on Thursday, and expectations are high. Analysts see revenue and earnings per share climbing 12% and 25%, respectively.
The strong stock and buoyant projections may seem to make Marvell a good candidate to tumble, but that doesn't seem likely. Marvell has easily surpassed Wall Street's profit targets in each of the past three quarters, and it hasn't even been close. We're talking about double-digit percentage beats in each of those three periods. That's the kind of momentum a company wants heading into a report.
My first call is for Marvell's stock to move higher this week.
2.The Nasdaq Composite will beat the Dow this week
Tech has been a big winner in recent years, so betting on tech over stodgy blue chips has been a good bet for me more often than not.
I'm going to stick with this pick, even if it's been a bad bet a few times lately. This is the time for the Nasdaq's growth stocks to shine. The market is ripe for the tech-stacked secondary stocks to continue to outpace the 30 megacaps that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
3. Green Mountain Coffee Roasters will beat Wall Street's earnings estimates
Some stocks are just flat-out better than others.
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR +0.00%) is the company behind the Keurig system that serves up premium brews of coffee in single-cup servings. Another thing it does is make analysts look like perpetual underachievers. If analysts say the company posted a profit of $0.75 a share in its latest quarter, I'll argue that it held up better than that. History's on my side!
One of my best tricks to beating the market is finding stocks that perpetually land ahead of the prognosticators. Let's go over the past year of earnings reports.
| Quarter |
EPS Estimate |
EPS |
Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Q4 2012 |
$0.48 |
$0.64 |
33% |
|
Q1 2013 |
$0.65 |
$0.76 |
17% |
|
Q2 2013 |
$0.74 |
$0.93 |
26% |
|
Q3 2013 |
$0.77 |
$0.82 |
7% |
Source: Thomson Reuters.
Things can change, of course.
A research report last week indicated that Green Mountain is losing market share in Keurig K-Cup portion packs -- the blades in its razor and blades model -- to third parties making private label refills. The report also indicated that Green Mountain is offering discounted value packs in response to the market trends, and that would be problematic if coffee prices hadn't plunged 30% over the past year. However, if Green Mountain is yielding market share in a niche that is slowing or declining in popularity, it could be a pretty big problem.
However, it's hard to argue against the trend. Everything seems to be falling into place for another market-thumping quarter on the bottom line.
