According to data compiled by Box Office Mojo, Thor: The Dark World is earning for Walt Disney (DIS +2.26%) at a pace similar to that of Time Warner's summer hit, Man of Steel.
How close is the matchup? Here's a side-by-side comparison based on what we know today, though I fully expect the thunder god to have earned more when The Dark World finishes its run in theaters:
| Metrics | Thor: The Dark World | Man of Steel |
|
Domestic gross |
$203,607,581 estimated |
$291,045,518 |
|
International gross |
$455,410,526 estimated |
$371,800,000 |
|
TOTAL |
$659,018,107 estimated |
$662,845,518 |
Sources: Box Office Mojo, TMF estimates.
Some facts that informed my figures:
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Through its first 10 days in theaters, Thor: The Dark World was running about 30% behind Man of Steel in U.S. theaters. Holding the same ratio throughout its run would put the film's domestic haul at roughly $203.6 million.
-
Through its first three weeks of international screenings, The Dark World is running a bit more than 22% ahead of Supes. Holding the same pattern would put the thunder god's foreign take at about $455.4 million.
If I'm confident in my projections, it's because they jibe with similar comparisons. The Dark World is running 23% ahead of its predecessor domestically and 89% ahead in overseas territories. Were those ratios to hold, the film would end up earning more than $730 million worldwide.
Enchanted in far-off lands
International screenings account for about 74% of The Dark World's gross as of this writing. Hardly surprising when you figure that 66% of Iron Man 3's haul and 60% of Thor's gross came from foreign territories. My estimate in the preceding table puts the split for The Dark World at 31% domestic and 69% international, well within recent historical ranges.
If I'm right -- heck, if I'm even within spitting distance -- it'll make it easier for Marvel Studios boss Kevin Feige to convince Disney to fund another Thor film before a Hulk solo adventure. Or, even better, a Loki film.
Do you agree? Or do you expect next week's debut of The Hunger Games: Catching Fire to derail my thesis? Leave a comment below to let us know where you stand.
Thor: The Dark World is already a global winner for Marvel and Disney. Source: Marvel Entertainment.
