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Why Tibco Software, Inc. Shares Tanked

By Brian D. Pacampara, CFA - Dec 20, 2013 at 3:15PM

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Is this meaningful? Or just another movement?

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of Tibco Software, Inc. (TIBX.DL) sank 14% today after its current-quarter outlook disappointed Wall Street.

So what: Tibco's Q4 results -- EPS of $0.42 on a revenue increase of 6% -- managed to top estimates, but downbeat guidance for the current quarter reinforces concerns over decelerating growth going forward. Additionally, operating margin during the quarter fell 290 basis points from the year-ago period, suggesting that the company's competitive position is weakening, as well.

Now what: Management now expects adjusted EPS of $0.17-$0.18 on revenue of $247 million-$253 million, below the consensus of $0.21 and $255.3 million. "We are building momentum as we enter 2014, and I am very optimistic about our prospects in the year ahead," Chairman and CEO Vivek Ranadive reassured investors. More important, with the stock off more than 20% from its 52-week highs, and trading at a forward P/E of 15, now might be an opportune time to buy into that bullishness.

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