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Why Tibco Software Inc. Shares Tanked

By Brian Pacampara – Jun 4, 2014 at 12:00PM

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Is this meaningful? Or just another movement?

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of business software technologist Tibco Software (TIBX.DL) sank as low as 12% today after its preliminary second-quarter results disappointed Wall Street.

So what: The stock has been sluggish during the past several months on worries about slowing growth, and a downbeat view for the current quarter only reinforces those concerns. In fact, management blamed the disappointing report on weak sales of its recently launched analytics software "Spotfire," prompting several analysts to downgrade the stock on the risk of continued execution issues.

Now what: Management now expects Q2 adjusted EPS of $0.12-$0.13 on revenue of $250 million-$252 million, well below its prior view of $0.20-$0.22 on revenue of $263 million-$271 million. "We again experienced growth this quarter in our core infrastructure and event processing product revenue, but Spotfire sales were less than anticipated," said CEO Vivek Ranadivé. "We have several changes under way that we believe will improve Spotfire performance. We also acquired Jaspersoft this quarter, and while not a meaningful contributor to second quarter revenue, it represents an important addition to our analytics strategy going forward." More importantly, with Tibco shares hitting a new 52-week low today and trading at a forward P/E in the mid-teens, the downside seems limited enough to bet on those long-term prospects. 

Brian Pacampara has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Tibco Software. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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