Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over daily movements, we do like to keep an eye on market changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
Stocks didn't deliver on their bullish promise on Monday, with investors focusing on negative news on the earnings front as evidence that the market might have come too far too fast in 2013 and be poised for a pullback. The broader market dropped 1% or more, but even those sizable drops were timid compared to much larger plunges in SodaStream International (SODA), Intercept Pharmaceuticals (ICPT), and lululemon athletica (LULU -1.26%).
SodaStream nosedived 26% after releasing disappointing preliminary results for its full fiscal 2013. The company's projected adjusted earnings of $52.5 million for the year were about 20% below what many investors had expected, with sales growth slowing to its worst rate in five years despite the company posting another record year of revenue. A combination of higher costs and lower prices for its products weighed on profitability, and in light of the company's poor third-quarter performance, investors were in no mood to give SodaStream the benefit of the doubt. Going forward, the big question will be whether those who've already bought SodaStream machines will continue to build sales of flavorings and carbonator refills, a key component of the company's long-term growth plan.
Intercept fell 18%, giving back about half of its Friday gains after soaring more than 500% in two days last week. Analysts blamed the decline on Intercept's release of further data on its liver-disease therapy for nonalcoholic steatohepatitis, which pointed to the potential for higher cholesterol in patients who took the treatment. Some also noted greater awareness of liver-specialist and rival Conatus Pharmaceuticals (CNAT), which released its own development strategy update this morning, including plans to start a phase 2b trial on the use of its orphan-drug emricasan to treat post-orthotopic liver transplant recipients. Conatus also dropped 17% after a big rise Friday, showing the huge volatility in the space right now.
Yoga apparel specialist lululemon's 17% drop today came after its own negative guidance for the holiday quarter. With lululemon now anticipating revenue in a range that's $22 million below earlier estimates -- about 4% -- earnings are likely to come in $0.07 per share below its previous guidance. Surprisingly, the company pointed not to the pre-holiday results from December, but rather at a sluggish January in driving the poor results. Analysts point to the distractions from its quality-control issues in preventing lululemon from taking usual advantage of driving new fashions, but regardless of the cause, falling same-store sales are definitely not something shareholders are used to seeing.
