Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: Shares of MicroStrategy Incorporated (MSTR 1.06%) surged 10% today after Deutsche Bank upgraded the enterprise software technologist from hold to buy.
So what: Along with the upgrade, analyst Karl Keirstead boosted his price target to $150 (from $130), representing about 40% worth of upside to yesterday's close. So while momentum traders might be turned off by MicroStrategy's price pullback in recent months, Keirstead's call could reflect a growing sense on Wall Street that its prospects are becoming too cheap to pass up.
Now what: According to Deutsche, MicroStrategy's risk/reward trade-off is particularly attractive at this point. "MSTR shares trade at an EV/2014 revenue multiple of just 1.4x (and at a multiple of 2.7x ongoing maintenance revenues) despite having a best-in-class business intelligence (BI) suite (customer feedback is almost uniformly positive) and despite sporting a 22% license growth rate in 4Q13," said Keirstead. "While several factors weigh on the multiple (weak license growth over the last two years, the lack of a competitive product against Tableau in the "BI 2.0" space, margin deterioration), MSTR's valuation multiple is heavily discounted (we estimate by at least 25%) to reflect the lack of visibility." When you couple MicroStrategy's cheapish valuation with its rock-solid balance sheet, the downside might still be limited enough to bet on Deutsche's bullishness.
