Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: The price of oil resumed its rally on Monday, rising more than 3% after OPEC cut its forecast for supply growth in 2015. That fueled another double-digit ride for Halcon Resources Corp.'s (HK +0.00%) stock. The oil driller's stock is now up 43% in the last five trading days as oil has surged 20% off the bottom in recent weeks.
So what: The recent rally in the price of petroleum seems to have some legs as even OPEC has said it sees the glut of oil easing a bit from previous expectations. The oil cartel cut its oversupply forecast by a third and now sees supply outstripping demand by about 1 million barrels per day this year.
That being said, the world still has too much oil at the moment, which means the price will remain volatile. That's not exactly great news for Halcon Resources, which desperately needs the price to stabilize much higher going forward so it can pay down its massive debt load. If that does not happen, the driller could run into liquidity issues once its oil hedges begin to roll off later this year and its cash flow really takes a hit.
Now what: The price of oil is likely going to remain volatile until the supply glut is completely eradicated. This means Halcon Resources' stock will be hypervolatile whenever the price of oil is moving, due to its leverage to oil and the leverage on its balance sheet. The company's investors are likely in for a wild ride in 2015.
