Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: Shares of Guess? (NYSE:GES) were up more than 16% as of 1 p.m. Thursday after the clothing and apparel company announced mixed fiscal-fourth-quarter 2015 results
So what: Quarterly revenue fell 9% year over year (down 4% on a constant currency basis) to $696.7 million, which translated to a 24.1% decline in net earnings to $53.9 million, or $0.63 per diluted share. Analysts, on average, were expecting lower earnings of $0.57 per share on higher sales of $704.6 million.
Guess? CEO Paul Marciano noted the results were roughly in line with expectations. E-commerce, in particular, showed outsized strength by growing 37% during the quarter and achieving nearly $80 million in revenue for the year. Meanwhile, comparable-store sales including e-commerce sites decreased 5% in U.S. dollars and 3.5% on a constant currency basis.
Now what: However, Marciano elaborated, "Turning to the outlook for fiscal year 2016, currencies will definitely be a headwind if they stay at current levels. But as always, we will remain focused on what we can control, like our North America real estate realignment, providing a unique customer experience within our stores, and tightly managing our costs and inventory levels."
In the meantime, for the current quarter ending May 2, 2015, Guess expects net revenue to decline between 7% and 8%, including a negative nine-percentage-point impact from currencies. That should result in a net loss per diluted share in the range of $0.06 to $0.03. Wall Street was modeling a less severe net loss of $0.03 per share on a 6% decline in revenue to $491.2 million.
All things considered, Guess might look reasonably priced at around 0.6 times last year's sales and 15 times trailing-12-month earnings. But given its ongoing stagnant sales and earnings even without accounting for currency challenges, I personally find it hard to get excited about the brand. For now, I'm perfectly happy observing it from the sidelines.