Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: Shares of Super Micro Computer (SMCI 4.33%) were down 9.7% as of 1:45 p.m. today, after dropping as much as 12% earlier in the day, in the wake of the company's weak fiscal-third-quarter earnings release yesterday.
So what: Super Micro reported $471.2 million in revenue and $0.47 in adjusted earnings per share for the quarter ending in March. Quarterly net sales were down 6.3% from the second quarter but up 26.1% from the year-ago quarter. EPS was up from the year-ago quarter's $0.37 result. Wall Street had expected Super Micro to report $475.7 million in revenue and $0.50 in adjusted EPS, so the results were understandably underwhelming.
The company's guidance for its fiscal fourth quarter now anticipates revenue in the range of $510 million to $560 million, with adjusted EPS ranging from $0.53 to $0.62. These ranges are a bit soft compared to Wall Street's estimates, which anticipate $543.8 million in revenue and $0.62 in EPS.
Now what: Today's drop means that Super Micro investors are only sitting on a 55% gain for the past year, rather than the 75% gain they held yesterday. That's solid growth, and shares are now trading at a modest 17.8 P/E.
If Super Micro hits the midpoint of its EPS guidance for the fourth quarter, it will wind up reporting $2.16 in adjusted earnings per share for its 2015 fiscal year, which is good for a forward adjusted P/E ratio of just 14.2. That's quite reasonable for a company that's seen its trailing-12-month EPS rise more than fourfold since the end of 2012, especially since full-year EPS of $2.16 would be a whopping 61% higher than 2014's result. Today's drop is nothing to fear, and it might even represent a good buying opportunity for investors with a bit of cash on hand.
Editor's note: This article has been corrected to state that Q3 sales were up 26.1% from the year-ago quarter.
