Why XPO Logistics Fell on Thursday

The transportation and logistics company said it will triple in size in a few years; Mr. Market wasn't impressed.

Brian D. Pacampara, CFA
Brian D. Pacampara, CFA
Aug 6, 2015 at 2:36PM

What's happening: Shares of transportation and logistics company XPO Logistics (NYSE:XPO) plunged as much as 10% on Thursday after its quarterly results disappointed Wall Street.

Why it's happening: XPO shares have slumped in recent months on valuation concerns heading into the quarter, and the bottom-line miss for Q4 -- adjusted loss of $0.16 per share versus the consensus loss of just $0.07 -- only seems to be reinforcing those worries. On the bright side, XPO's adjusted EBITDA of $79.7 million came in well ahead of the average analyst estimate of $48.1 million. And on the even brighter side was the company's revised full-year guidance: XPO now expects long-term revenue of $23 billion by 2019, up significantly from its prior view of just $9.5 billion in revenue by 2017.

"We're in a strong position to act on acquisition opportunities on both sides of the Atlantic, with more than $1.2 billion in cash, an untapped ABL facility, and a highly integrated global platform," said CEO Bradley Jacobs. "Our new trajectory puts us on track to nearly triple the size of our company in four years. We're now targeting approximately $23 billion of revenue and $1.5 billion of EBITDA in 2019."

So other than the Q4 bottom-line miss, it's tough to find too much to complain about. Analysts are likely skeptical about XPO's new extra-lofty long-term target, but at a price-to-sales multiple of around 1, the stock doesn't seem priced for perfection, either.