When the market starts to get crazy, many great business's can see their stock prices decline for no good reason. When this happens, the great investors of the world start to go shopping for their favorite names that are suddenly on sale.
We asked a team of Motley Fool contributors to offer up a stock idea that they believe will make a great long-term investment from here on out. Here's what they had to say:
Brian Feroldi: When the market goes crazy, it tends to sell off high-flying growth stocks the hardest, which makes it a great time for opportunistic investors to put money to work in their best long-term ideas. One name that is down big recently that tops my list for a great long-term investment is global travel giant TripAdvisor (NASDAQ:TRIP).
TripAdvisor owns a collection of travel-related websites that continue to grow by leaps and bounds as customers flock to them to research vacation ideas. The company's 250 million reviews continue to be a starting point for travelers, as evidenced by the 30% growth in unique visitors over the last few years, as the site now hosts 375 million monthly users. Better yet, with only about 26% of the $51 billion spent annually on travel advertising coming online, there is still plenty of room for the market to grow, and TripAdvisor is in a prime position to grab an ever-increasing share of that pie.
The company is also in the process of diversifying its revenue away from advertising and toward direct booking, and it's pushing hard to extend its reach into restaurants, vacation rentals, and local attractions.
Despite the company's excellent financial situation, competitive position, and market opportunity, the stock is down 31% over the last year and is currently trading hands at 25 times 2016 earnings estimates, making now a great time for interested investors to add this high-quality name to their portfolio.
Personally, I think that's absolutely crazy because Kinder has a massive moat consisting of 84,000 miles of natural gas and oil pipelines and 165 storage and transfer terminals. In addition, 96% of its 2015 earnings before depreciation and amortization is protected by either long-term, fixed-fee contracts or hedging.
Despite oil crashing to its lowest level since the financial crisis, Kinder was still able to generate $226 million in excess distributable cash flow in the first half of 2015. Management remains confident that its plan to grow the dividend by 10% per year through 2020 is still on track and with $22 billion in new projects coming online in the next five years I think that confidence is well earned.
What's more, that backlog is likely to only grow bigger over time because America's shale oil and gas potential is so massive that a study by the Interstate Natural Gas Association of America or INGAA found that, over the next 20 years, $640 billion will need to be invested in America's midstream infrastructure. Even if oil prices remain low, INGAA still expects at least $465 billion worth of investment to occur.
With growth potential like that, I am highly confident that Kinder Morgan will continue to generate great, market-beating returns for investors -- especially if they snap up these crazy cheap shares and lock in this ridiculously high dividend yield.
Daniel Miller: Fresh off investor anxiety based on China's slowing economy and its potential impact on automakers, General Motors (NYSE:GM) is down 14% this year but has much upside for investors and is attractively priced.
This isn't the same General Motors as it was 10 years ago, both literally and figuratively. GM is making good business decisions such as pulling Chevrolet from Europe, exiting manufacturing in Australia and Indonesia, and restructuring operations in Thailand, which will aid in eliminating an estimated $0.5 billion in annual losses and free up $1.5 billion in planned capital expenditures over the next four years.
On the flip side, while gas prices remain low and credit remains easily available, sales of larger SUVs and full-size trucks are booming in the U.S., sending GM's North American operating margins above 10%, which is a great level. Beyond margin improvements, another positive factor for GM's earnings is one that investors often overlook: GM Financial. GMF is expected to contribute more than double last year's $0.8 billion in EBT-adjusted earnings when the book is closed on 2018.
As the automaker continues to make better strategic decisions, GM has recently been generating 20%-plus return on invested capital, and shouldn't have a problem continuing that trend. The company boasts an investment grade balance sheet with a targeted cash pile of roughly $20 billion going forward, which is down from previous levels as it is returning value to shareholders through increased dividends and share buybacks.
Many investors are hesitant to invest in General Motors, but this isn't the same automaker it was a decade ago and you can get a much healthier global automaker at a discount. GM trades at a forward price-to-earnings of just 5.7, a price to book of 1.3 and price to cash flow of 4.8.
Because Celgene markets top-selling multiple myeloma drugs that rack up billions of dollars in revenue every year, and the company's balance sheet is rock-solid with a growing cash stockpile -- it's one of biotech's top-tier operators.
Celgene's investments in next-generation therapies, such as those targeting autoimmune diseases, have the company guiding for more than a doubling in sales and EPS by 2020, and based on forecasts for next year, Celgene's forward P/E of 20.5 makes its shares especially intriguing to investors looking to buy quality on sale.
Of course, Celgene will need to overcome competitive threats if it hopes to achieve its long-term forecast, but management's proven track record suggests it may be worth giving the company the benefit of the doubt. If so, then Celgene's outlook for at least $13 in EPS in five years makes it one stock that investors ought to consider buying whenever it goes on sale.
Bob Ciura: I think Big Oil stocks are on sale and, in particular, I like Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX). It goes without saying that buying energy stocks is a scary proposition right now, as crude oil has fallen all the way to $44 per barrel in the United States, down from over $100 per barrel last year. But at some point, it stands to reason that commodity prices will stabilize. If and when that happens, Chevron has huge upside potential.
To be sure, Chevron is struggling. Its total profits fell 90% last quarter, year over year, to $571 million, which looks alarming. But Chevron booked $2.6 billion of one-time impairments related to project suspensions and a downward revision in the company's long-term oil price outlook. Excluding this, Chevron's results look much better. Operating cash flow decreased 41% last quarter, which is still concerning, but far from the 90% drop in headline earnings.
And downstream is a major factor working in Chevron's favor. Refining profits actually tend to grow when oil prices decline, because falling oil lowers feedstock costs and boosts profit margins. Chevron's downstream earnings have more than tripled over the first half of the year, to $4.3 billion.
Chevron is also aggressively cutting costs. Over the first half of the year, Chevron cut capital expenditures by $2.3 billion compared to the same period in 2014. In addition, Chevron sold $3.9 billion of assets just last quarter, and has realized nearly $11 billion in asset sales over the past 18 months. Lastly, Chevron won't buy back stock this year, which will save another $5 billion each year.
As a result, Chevron expects to fully cover its dividend with free cash flow by 2017. With a 5.7% dividend and a stock trading at 15 times forward EPS estimates and 0.9 times book value, I believe Chevron is a great stock on sale.
Adam Galas has no position in any stocks mentioned. Bob Ciura owns shares of Kinder Morgan. Brian Feroldi owns shares of Kinder Morgan and TripAdvisor. Brian Feroldi has the following options: long January 2016 $32.5 calls on Kinder Morgan, short January 2016 $32.5 puts on Kinder Morgan, long January 2016 $40 calls on Kinder Morgan, and short January 2016 $40 puts on Kinder Morgan. Todd Campbell owns shares of Celgene. The Motley Fool owns and recommends Celgene, Kinder Morgan, and TripAdvisor. The Motley Fool recommends Chevron and General Motors. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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