Rick's a pro, and I certainly can't argue with his upbeat view on the satellite radio industry in general. I share his belief that terrestrial radio is a pretty sick puppy, given the way it's disappointed listeners. However, it seems pretty clear that Sirius
Many people argue that XM Satellite Radio
When it comes to consumers' choices in music, I wouldn't disregard the power of Apple's
Rick's bullish on Howard, but I just realized that the Howard hype has been going on for so long. Maybe the "Howard halo effect" will continue into the March quarter, but let's face it, the fans who were going to shell out for Howard likely did so a long time ago. Howard may attract a young male audience that's known for adopting new technologies, but the recent piracy flap suggests that some of those users' eagerly adopted technologies include ways to get their Stern fix for free.
Rick states that there's nothing wrong with passion, and I agree with him there, too. (Passion can be full of mixed feelings, and it seems my friend Rick might have some mixed feelings on the subject of Sirius -- in an interview with Forbes, he said "XM is not as insanely overvalued" as Sirius. Who's the bear again, Rick?) Rick and I also agree that misplaced passion is a problem; when it comes to fan investors who can't compose a reasoned e-mail about a stock they own, I'd consider that passion especially misplaced. Given all the hot air surrounding its stock, I think there's a real danger that any missteps or disappointments will cause Sirius to tumble from its current heights.
I do appreciate Rick's point that there's a lot that can happen between now and the idyllic (and hardly guaranteed) future when Sirius lives up to such high expectations. He sees a lot of pretty darn good things between now and then, but I'd argue that a lot of it could also turn out to be pretty darn bad. Rick, I so enjoyed your metaphor about pigs, chickens, ham, and eggs. But I think XM and other competitive forces -- some of which we may not even know about yet -- may very well have Sirius for breakfast.
Alyce Lomax does not own shares of any of the companies mentioned.