A One-in-a-Hundred Investor

American presidents are often measured by what they achieve during their first 100 days in office. Schools have parties for students on the 100th day of the school year. When Jerry Yang returned to Yahoo! last summer, he gave himself 100 days to effect change at the online portal.

Around here at Motley Fool CAPS, we keep an eye on the 100-day mark, too. Some of our best investors -- we call them All-Stars -- have achieved top player ratings after garnering a score of 100 in their first 100 days on CAPS. Analysis has shown that the top-rated stocks have had the best performance over the past year, so might we assume that when the best players rate the best stocks, there is a correlation as well?

One of our highest-rated CAPS investors is DownWithInfidels, who sports a 99.98 player rating. A player since March 2007, DownWithInfidels currently has 200 active picks on CAPS but has made nearly 600 stock picks so far while achieving better than 75% accuracy. Here are a few of the most recent stock selections and how they were rated.

With a nearly 23-point gain on Taseko Mines, DownWithInfidels is handily doing well on this group of picks. Yet let's take a closer look at shoe maker Crocs, which our All-Star has marked for underperformance and whose recent earnings report has not inspired confidence amongst investors.

Walk a mile in my shoes
The surprisingly popular shoe from a currently unpopular stock still managed to kick sales higher in the fourth quarter, nearly doubling revenues to more than $224 million while boosting earnings some 84% higher. What seemed to do the cobbler in with the market was the sin of missing analyst forecasts by a penny and providing guidance for 2008 that merely reiterated its previous guidance that came in a penny below projections.

What seems to concern investors most are burgeoning inventories and receivables, which grew by 188% and 133%, respectively. Management contends that it's trying to anticipate demand instead of react to it, but apparently not many are convinced that it has the wherewithal to do so accurately enough.

More than 2,000 CAPS investors have rated Crocs, and nearly a third believe it will underperform the market. Most of those betting against the stock have viewed Crocs as simply a fad, though the cognoscenti would perhaps prefer to call it "trendy." Still, CAPS player CLF65 likens the situation to "putting lipstick on a pig." He sees the stock eventually shriveling away.

Motley Fool co-founder David Gardner, an All-Star CAPS player in his own right, with a 99.11 rating, grudgingly agrees that Crocs is a fad that will pass. Says TMFBreakerDave:

But I really do think Crocs is a fad. And I don't buy the argument that "_______ was a fad too" -- say, UGGs. Crocs jump out at you, visually -- when the faddish sizzle subsides, it has you looking like a fish -- or crocodile -- out of water. UGGs blend in -- they're just nice boots for the most part. Crocs's very strength -- their day-glo attention-getting fun -- will end up being their greatest weakness. (They're comfortable shoes, regardless.)

Not everyone agrees that it's time to count Crocs out. CAPS Player upandcomersr sees an opportunity for a turnaround: "Extremely comfortable product with possible health benefits, kids love them and in this day and age parents will buy whatever the kids want, now also targeting adults with newer product line, financially beaten down well off 52 week lows and I believe an excellent opportunity for turnaround coming into the summer."

A 1-in-100 opportunity
Some of the best and smartest players in the CAPS investor-intelligence community have found Crocs to be a tough sell, but we haven't heard yet from you. As hockey great Wayne Gretzky once noted, "You miss 100% of the shots you never take." At Motley Fool CAPS, every investor's opinion counts, and since it's free to sign up, why not use this opportunity to take your best shot?