Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility

Medco's Far-From-Generic Quarter

By Brian Orelli, PhD – Updated Apr 5, 2017 at 9:31PM

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The pharmacy benefit manager benefits from new generic drugs.

Medco Health Solutions (NYSE: MHS) and its former parent, Merck (NYSE: MRK), were polar opposites this week. Merck announced that the FDA rejected its newest cholesterol-lowering drug, but reaffirmed guidance for the year. Medco reported a pretty strong quarter, and only reaffirmed guidance.

Both actions had the same effect on their stock price, though. Down. Down. Down.

The pharmacy benefit manager's earnings per share were up 6.4% year over year to $0.50, which is really impressive; the first quarter last year contained sales of generic versions of Sanofi-Aventis' (NYSE: SNY) and Bristol-Myers Squibb's (NYSE: BMY) Plavix that have since been removed from the market.

The increased income was driven by a 13.7% growth in mail-order prescription volume. Retail prescription volume increased a respectable 6.4% year over year. Generic drug dispensing rates, which are easier for the company to leverage, were up 510 basis points probably due to the new generics available, like Merck's osteoporosis drug, Fosamax, and Wyeth's (NYSE: WYE) heartburn medication, Protonix.

If things are looking so good, why did Medco's stock drop so precipitously? It appears investors were disappointed that the company didn't boost earnings guidance for the year. They're worried that a strong first quarter without a boost in guidance means weak quarters to come.

While that's certainly a possibility, it might be that management is being a little conservative. After guiding for 2008 earnings per share growth of 27% to 29% over 2007, who can blame management for being just a little cautious about upping guidance even more so early in the year?

With a continuing downturn of the economy, customers are likely to be more price conscious in the future -- they certainly can't stop taking their medication -- and that bodes well for Medco's mail-order prescription business, which usually results in lower costs for the customers.

Considering that rival Express Scripts (Nasdaq: ESRX) did raise guidance, I'm inclined to guess that Medco's lack of raised guidance is more likely due to caution from management than a slowdown in the pharmacy benefit management industry.

Motley Fool Rule Breakers is always on the hunt for hot drug stocks and other cutting-edge picks. Click here to see all of our latest discoveries with a free, 30-day trial subscription.

Fool contributor Brian Orelli, Ph.D., doesn't own shares of any company mentioned in this article. The Fool has a disclosure policy.

Invest Smarter with The Motley Fool

Join Over 1 Million Premium Members Receiving…

  • New Stock Picks Each Month
  • Detailed Analysis of Companies
  • Model Portfolios
  • Live Streaming During Market Hours
  • And Much More
Get Started Now

Stocks Mentioned

Medco Health Solutions, Inc. Stock Quote
Medco Health Solutions, Inc.
MHS.DL
Merck & Co., Inc. Stock Quote
Merck & Co., Inc.
MRK
$86.78 (-0.83%) $0.73
Express Scripts Holding Company Stock Quote
Express Scripts Holding Company
ESRX
Sanofi Stock Quote
Sanofi
SNY
$38.40 (-1.87%) $0.73
Bristol Myers Squibb Company Stock Quote
Bristol Myers Squibb Company
BMY
$70.71 (-0.81%) $0.58

*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.

Related Articles

Motley Fool Returns

Motley Fool Stock Advisor

Market-beating stocks from our award-winning analyst team.

Stock Advisor Returns
339%
 
S&P 500 Returns
109%

Calculated by average return of all stock recommendations since inception of the Stock Advisor service in February of 2002. Returns as of 09/24/2022.

Discounted offers are only available to new members. Stock Advisor list price is $199 per year.

Premium Investing Services

Invest better with The Motley Fool. Get stock recommendations, portfolio guidance, and more from The Motley Fool's premium services.