Shares of Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ:TTWO) opened 12% higher this morning, but don't go scouring last night's fourth-quarter report for the reason. The quarter was a stinker, as losses widened despite a marginal uptick on the top line.
No, what's driving shares of Take-Two this morning is the news that Carl Icahn taking an 11% stake in the struggling video-game company.
Investors are assuming that Icahn will try to bring Electronic Arts (NASDAQ:ERTS) back to the table. EA had a $26-per-share buyout offer on the table, but it backed away when Take-Two shareholders weren't nibbling.
As long as Icahn realizes that EA isn't coming back at anything close to that price, he may be making a shrewd move.
Take-Two's fundamentals have collapsed since EA walked away -- black ink has turned to red ink. The stock was slammed earlier this month, when Take-Two warned that it would post a sharp loss in the new fiscal year, despite the release of several highly anticipated games, including BioShock 2 in February.
However, Take-Two's Grand Theft Auto is still a juggernaut, and it wouldn't surprise me to see a desperate EA willing to pay half as much as it offered last year. At today's single-digit prices, it would be a healthy premium.
However, Icahn has bitten off more than he could chew in trying to play matchmaker at Yahoo! (NASDAQ:YHOO) and Blockbuster (NYSE:BBI) in recent years. Yes, he's rich and smart, but he doesn't always get what he wants.
Given the industry's hazy state, one wouldn't blame Take-Two for letting an activist investor try to drum up suitors as an exit strategy. If EA isn't interested, there's a fair chance that Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ:ATVI) or MTV and Rock Band parent Viacom (NYSE:VIA) may be ready to listen.
The clock is ticking at Take-Two. Let's hope the company gets it right the second time.
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