"I like to go for cinches. I like to shoot fish in a barrel. But I like to do it after the water has run out."
-- Warren Buffett
History seems to show that good investing doesn't necessarily mean picking out complex situations and basing your investment thesis on Nobel-level math. In fact, as the recent financial crisis has shown us, too much complexity can often end in calamity.
In an effort to track down companies that may fall into that "fish in a barrel" category, I've turned to The Motley Fool's CAPS community. Using CAPS' stock screener, I looked for companies that have a price-to-earnings ratio below 15, a long-term debt-to-equity ratio below 50%, a return on equity above 10%, and a high rating from our CAPS community.
|
Company |
CAPS rating
|
Price-to-Earnings Ratio |
Return on Equity |
Long-Term
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Agrium |
***** |
11.5 |
17.9% |
37% |
|
Fluor |
***** |
11.0 |
23.8% |
1% |
|
Bucyrus International |
***** |
13.0 |
23.5% |
40% |
Source: CAPS.
These are just three of the results that the CAPS screener spit out; you can run the same screen yourself to see the rest of the companies that made the cut. While the three companies above aren't meant to be formal recommendations, they are a good starting point for further research. And on that note, let's take a closer look at these companies.
Agrium
While the much larger Potash Corp
While the whole crop-nutrition sector was beaten down in the past couple of years because of plummeting demand, Agrium's management believes this was an anomaly and that fertilizer demand is set for a rebound. If that's the case, Agrium is positioning itself well to take advantage of that rebound through capacity expansion and acquisitions.
If there's one thing that holds true for commodities -- whether steel, oil, or fertilizer -- investors are best off diving in during a cyclical downswing, and that makes Agrium's stock look pretty compelling right now.
Fluor
If you're looking at energy giants like ExxonMobil
Without gathering, processing, and refining facilities, the oil and gas that the energy giants pull out of the ground would be of little use to customers. That's where Fluor comes in. And while traditional petrochemical facilities are still in demand, a push for cleaner fuels in recent years has provided Fluor with additional opportunities.
But the company also has a good amount of diversification and derives half of its revenue from non-oil-and-gas projects such as major industrial and infrastructure projects.
The global recession has put a definite crimp in new contracts for Fluor, but with more than $2 billion in cash on its books, and very little debt, the company gives investors little reason to sweat.
Bucyrus International
While stocks like Suntech Power
In fact, Bucyrus estimates that it has double the installed base of its competition. Talk about a top dog in the industry.
On CAPS, more than 1,000 members have given a thumbs-up to this industry leader, while only 31 think its stock will trail the rest of the market. CAPS All-Star and Motley Fool Rule Breakers analyst Karl Thiel (TMFBreakerThiel) recently joined the bullish crowd and said: "This is how you can be bullish on drilling and mining, but agnostic about what is drilled or mined, or where. Sweet!"
Getting down to business
Now the CAPS community wants you. Do you think these stocks make sense? Or is the community off base? Head over to CAPS and join the 145,000 members already sharing their thoughts on thousands of stocks.
Warren Buffett may be the biggest name at Berkshire Hathaway, but as Morgan Housel recently pointed out, Charlie Munger has some great advice of his own on becoming rich.
