The first half of the year has been a dismal one for the solar sector. Shares of the Claymore/MAC Global Solar ETF (NYSE: TAN) have plunged by almost 30%, while individual companies like Canadian Solar (Nasdaq: CSIQ) have fared much worse. Subsidy cuts, euro pressures, and the threat of massive oversupply all combined to shake the shares of multiple companies in the sector.

However, on Thursday, a Credit Suisse analyst upgraded major U.S. player First Solar (Nasdaq: FSLR), citing a new outlook for increased demand. Fellow American solar player SunPower (Nasdaq: SPWRA) is along for the ride, up 6%. However, if you're a solar investor, don't get too excited. This could just be speculative play at hand. According to Reuters: "Investors began pricing in the impact of Germany's incentive cuts earlier this year, so speculative traders are bidding up solar shares on hopes for a delay or reduction in the cuts."

Let's wait and see how much German subsidy cuts affect the industry, and how much further the EU continues to free-fall. When I've got some clarity around those issues, then I'll decide to celebrate.

Jordan DiPietro owns shares of First Solar. First Solar is a Motley Fool Rule Breakers selection. Try any of our Foolish newsletters today, free for 30 days. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.