I'm a believer in growth stocks. As an analyst for our Motley Fool Rule Breakers service, I think you should be a believer, too. But even I have to admit some growth stories are bogus, hence this regular series.
Next up: Green Mountain (Nasdaq: GMCR). Is the would-be king of caffeinated home brew the real thing? Let's get to the numbers.
Foolish facts
|
Metric |
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters |
|---|---|
|
CAPS stars (5 max) |
* |
|
Total ratings |
1,006 |
|
Percent bulls |
67.6% |
|
Percent bears |
32.4% |
|
Bullish pitches |
120 out of 186 |
|
Highest rated peers |
Seneca Foods, John B. Sanfillippo & Son, J&J Snack Foods |
Data current as of Sept. 30.
Allow me to admit a bias up front. Not only is Green Mountain Coffee one of our best-performing picks in Rule Breakers, it's also the best-performing pick on my Motley Fool CAPS scorecard -- an 11-bagger over the past four years. The run-up has many Fools wondering if now's the time to sell, or short.
"Coffee along with the other soft commodities are on a stellar run which is expected to continue, but even with the company's acquisitions I can't justify their current valuation of $4.1 [billion]. Consistently positively cash flow from operations but they are looking to take on a lot more debt now to finance more acquisitions, and I feel they are way overbought right now and due for a pullback," wrote All-Star investor jamespeer two weeks ago.
He's been proven right since then. Shares of Green Mountain fell more than 5% yesterday on news that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has opened an inquiry that may involve the coffee roaster's revenue-recognition practices. An investigation could take months, leading to a slow and steady decline in the share price.
What we know so far is that Green Mountain admits an accounting error from 2007 wherein management overstated per-share earnings by $0.03. The company booked $0.11 in diluted earnings that fiscal year; a little more than 25% will now be erased.
That's significant. But does it alter the rest of Green Mountain's remarkable growth story? I'm not so sure.
The elements of growth
|
Metric |
Last 12 Months |
2009 |
2008 |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Normalized net income growth |
121.1% |
86.8% |
79.3% |
|
Revenue growth |
68.8% |
60.5% |
46.4% |
|
Gross margin |
32.3% |
31.1% |
35.4% |
|
Receivables growth |
88.1% |
67.1% |
39.1% |
|
Shares outstanding |
131.7 million |
130.8 million |
109.4 million |
Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.
Picasso couldn't paint a better growth picture than the one Green Mountain has created. Let's review:
- Revenue and net income growth have accelerated in each of the past three years. ('Nuff said.)
- Green Mountain hasn't needed excess receivables growth in order to generate massive revenue and income gains. This suggests a measure of operating leverage in the underlying business.
- But it's gross margins where this story gets really interesting. Green Mountain says its newly revealed revenue recognition problems are the result of miscalculating margins. The implication? Margins will be adjusted downwards, impacting net income. And yet the impact may not be huge. Gross margins have already declined in the wake of outrageous growth over the past three years, which, again, looks like operating leverage at work.
Competitor and peer checkup
|
Competitor |
Normalized Net Income Growth (3 yrs.) |
|---|---|
|
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters |
95.9% |
|
Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT) |
3.1% |
|
Peet's Coffee (Nasdaq: PEET) |
32.1% |
|
Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) |
1.8% |
|
Sara Lee (NYSE: SLE) |
4.8% |
|
Starbucks Coffee (Nasdaq: SBUX) |
10.7% |
Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's. Data current as of Sept. 30.
Green Mountain is the overwhelming winner in this table, no doubt due in part to its acquisition and successful marketing of the K-Cup single-cup brewing system, which Starbucks has since copied with its VIA instant brand. So be it. Success breeds imitators.
Grade: Sustainable
Will the imitators take a straw to Green Mountain's cup of profits? They haven't so far, and I don't believe they will now. Instead, I see the SEC inquiry surfacing troubling issues as the biggest threat to investors at current prices. But given management's record of excellent stewardship in years past, I suspect the agency's findings will include minor infractions and nothing more. I'm sticking with my outperform call.
Now it's your turn to weigh in. Do you like Green Mountain Coffee Roasters at these levels? Would you make it one of our 11 o'clock stocks? Let the debate begin in the comments box below, and when you're done, click here to get today's 11 o'clock portfolio pick.
You can also ask Tim to evaluate a favorite growth story by sending him an email, or replying to him on Twitter.
For further Foolishness featuring Green Mountain Coffee Roasters:
