Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility

A Shutdown of Binary Events?

By Brian Orelli, PhD – Updated Apr 6, 2017 at 10:30PM

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

A government shutdown will likely stop FDA approvals.

If the lack of a spending bill shuts down the government this evening, biotech investors will get a break from one of their favorite pastimes: betting on binary events.

Like most government agencies, the Food and Drug Administration will cut nonessential workers. CNN reported that some plant inspections will continue, but they'll be prioritized to high-risk plants that have a history of safety issues. It seems that Dendreon's (Nasdaq: DNDN) investors should plan for a delay in approval of its new plants in Atlanta and Los Angeles.

Drug approvals seem to fall in the nonessential category. But it gets worse. Not only are we unlikely to see any approvals during the shutdown, but decisions on drugs such as Vertex Pharmaceuticals' (Nasdaq: VRTX) telaprevir, Merck's (NYSE: MRK) boceprevir, and Seattle Genetics' (Nasdaq: SGEN) brentuximab vedotin with applications currently pending at the FDA will be delayed. BioWorld Today reports that the agency plans to push back PDUFA dates by the number of days the government is shut down.

Investors looking to get their fix of potential big stock moves can still invest in companies with upcoming clinical trial results. Celgene (Nasdaq: CELG) should present results from a phase 2 trial for its lung cancer drug amrubicin shortly. And Amarin (Nasdaq: AMRN) expects results from its second phase 3 trial for its cholesterol drug AMR101 this quarter.

And of course there's still one upcoming binary event that will still be in play: when the shutdown will end. Investors could sell put options on companies with upcoming FDA decisions that would then expire worthless if the decision date is extended beyond option expiration. Or take it a step further and strangle the stock.

Or you could just use the break to add stocks to your watchlist and do some more research.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals is a Motley Fool Rule Breakers recommendation. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

Fool contributor Brian Orelli, Ph.D., doesn't own shares of any company mentioned in this article. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Invest Smarter with The Motley Fool

Join Over 1 Million Premium Members Receiving…

  • New Stock Picks Each Month
  • Detailed Analysis of Companies
  • Model Portfolios
  • Live Streaming During Market Hours
  • And Much More
Get Started Now

Stocks Mentioned

Merck & Co., Inc. Stock Quote
Merck & Co., Inc.
MRK
$86.18 (-0.69%) $0.60
Celgene Corporation Stock Quote
Celgene Corporation
CELG
Amarin Corporation plc Stock Quote
Amarin Corporation plc
AMRN
$1.10 (0.92%) $0.01
Seagen Inc. Stock Quote
Seagen Inc.
SGEN
$135.27 (-2.82%) $-3.93
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Stock Quote
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated
VRTX
$276.78 (-2.35%) $-6.67

*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.

Related Articles

Motley Fool Returns

Motley Fool Stock Advisor

Market-beating stocks from our award-winning analyst team.

Stock Advisor Returns
329%
 
S&P 500 Returns
106%

Calculated by average return of all stock recommendations since inception of the Stock Advisor service in February of 2002. Returns as of 09/26/2022.

Discounted offers are only available to new members. Stock Advisor list price is $199 per year.

Premium Investing Services

Invest better with The Motley Fool. Get stock recommendations, portfolio guidance, and more from The Motley Fool's premium services.