Is now the right time to jump into emerging markets?

After a tremendous five-year run in international markets -- especially emerging markets -- many investors have sought to capitalize on foreign growth by moving assets overseas. According to a July article in SmartMoney magazine, inflows into international mutual funds topped $117 billion over the previous two years, versus just $18 billion for domestic funds.

Once bitten, twice shy
What's interesting -- and perhaps a bit troubling -- about this figure is that between 1998 and 1999, the fund inflows were outsized in the opposite direction: $327 billion went into domestic funds, and only $19 billion found its way overseas.

Let's recall what's happened since then:

Index-Tracking Investment


Return Since Dec. 31, 1999


S&P 500


PowerShares QQQ*

Nasdaq 100


Vanguard Total International Stock Index (VGTSX)



Vanguard Emerging Markets Index (VEIEX)

MSCI Emerging Markets


*Formerly known as Nasdaq 100 Trust.

So ... buy American?
With capital flooding the foreign markets today, and knowing what happened seven years ago, should you play the contrarian and bet against international stocks?

Now, certainly some of the increased international inflows are from investors blindly and unwisely chasing past performance, but the state of today's foreign markets is a bit different than the Nasdaq circa 1999.

For one, at the end of 1999, the Nasdaq P/E ratio stood at 200, as investors poured their milk money into tech stocks. This lofty tech group included RF Micro Devices (NASDAQ:RFMD), QLogic (NASDAQ:QLGC), and Advanced Energy Industries (NASDAQ:AEIS) whose P/E ratios were all higher than 150 in December 1999. Unfortunately, none of these companies was able to keep earnings growth up to the market's lofty expectations -- and their stock prices have yet to completely recover.

Just another BRIC in the wall
Many emerging-market stocks, on the other hand, have outpaced earnings growth in the United States. Case in point: The S&P 40 BRIC Index, which tracks large companies in the emerging markets of Brazil, Russia, India, and China, has generated earnings growth of 15% on average since 2002, while the S&P posted a still-impressive 12%. BRIC components CNOOC (NYSE:CEO) and Gerdau (NYSE:GGB) for instance, grew their earnings at a 30% clip over the past five years.

If you're either already invested in Chinese or Indian stocks (you're not alone), or simply want to diversify your emerging market holdings, here are three overlooked markets to consider for new money.

This material- and metal-rich country is often overshadowed by hot-growth Brazil, but it offers a market-oriented economy, a high level of foreign trade, and real GDP growth of more than 4%. Inflation has remained in check since 2000, thanks to high copper prices and increased exports, and unemployment hovers around 7%. There are currently 16 Chilean ADRs, ranging from financials like Banco de Chile to the expected mining companies like Chemical & Mining Company of Chile (NYSE:SQM).

It's the consummate "high political risk" market, thanks to its 60-year-old tiff with China, and Taiwan's stocks generally sport below-market valuations with strong earnings growth. Taiwan Semiconductor, for instance, trades at 17 times last year's earnings and pays out a healthy 3.4% dividend.

With more than 80% of its exports and 50% of imports tied to the U.S., Mexico's economic path is linked to its northern neighbor's. And even though it's the 15th-largest economy in the world, Mexico still has plenty of room to grow. The IMF and Goldman Sachs expect Mexico to be the fifth-largest economy in the world by 2040. Mexican stocks were jolted a bit in late 2006 during the contested presidential election, but they've rebounded nicely. Telefonos de Mexico, the $36 billion telecom titan, is up 125% over the past three years.

Look before you leap
There are always added risks when you invest abroad -- particularly in emerging markets such as the three discussed above. So before investing overseas, be sure to understand the country's political climate, economic philosophy, and level of corruption. These simple factors can either foster the growth of tremendous companies or squash their potential. Could Microsoft have emerged from a country that wasn't friendly to corporate growth?

International investor and Motley Fool Global Gains advisor Bill Mann looks for promising stocks based in countries that support free markets and encourage foreign investment. In fact, five of the team's picks hail from the overlooked markets discussed above. Moreover, the Global Gains recommendations are currently beating both the S&P 500 and the MSCI EAFE. 

If you'd like to learn more about the Global Gains service, a free 30-day trial is yours. Simply click here to get started. 

This article was originally published on July 9, 2007. It has been updated.

Fool contributor Todd Wenning believes that if you don't eat yer meat, you can't have any pudding. He does not own shares of any company mentioned. Microsoft is a Motley Fool Inside Value pick. The Fool's disclosure policy is like Scotch tape -- it's so transparent.

This article represents the opinion of the writer, who may disagree with the “official” recommendation position of a Motley Fool premium advisory service. We’re motley! Questioning an investing thesis -- even one of our own -- helps us all think critically about investing and make decisions that help us become smarter, happier, and richer.