Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of Allied Irish Banks (NYSE: AIB) jumped as much as 15% in intraday trading as investors mulled the bailout situation in Ireland.

So what: The gains today follow the big move on Friday, when Irish officials were arguing that the country didn't need a European Union bailout. Over the weekend, the pressure on Ireland continued to build as EU officials urged the country to agree to a rescue. Today, the focus turned to Ireland's banks as officials considered the possibility of funneling bailout funds directly to the banks. That approach could be more palatable to Irish officials than a true sovereign rescue because they could say, "See? We didn't do anything wrong, it was all the banks' fault!"

Now what: Sadly, the situation in Ireland is a really big mess. And whether we're talking about Allied Irish Banks or competitor Bank of Ireland (NYSE: IRE), the future is as clear as mud. While uncertainty often creates opportunities, I get particularly nervous when that uncertainty is doused in political wrangling. Undoubtedly some inve stors will want to continue to speculate on Allied Irish Banks' shares, but most investors are probably better off looking elsewhere.

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Fool contributor Matt Koppenheffer does not own shares of any of the companies mentioned. You can check out what Matt is keeping an eye on by visiting his Motley Fool CAPS portfolio, or you can follow Matt on Twitter @KoppTheFool or on his RSS feed. The Fool's disclosure policyassures you no Wookiees were harmed in the making of this article.