I'm really rooting for Roxio
Yes, Roxio announced that it was probably going to post a narrower loss during the current quarter. Yes, the upstart that wants to be known as The Digital Media Company announced that its Napster subscription service was positioned to produce $9 million in revenues over its projected $8 million. It also inched up its top-line forecast for its software division -- from $17 million to $18 million here in its fiscal second quarter -- but you can pretty much dismiss that last piece of news. Roxio agreed to sell its software side to Sonic Solutions
After Sonic's swallow, it will leave Roxio changing its corporate nameplates to Napster. So why did the stock tack on $17 million in market cap on what is really just a $1 million upgrade in its eventual organic business?
I agree that it may seem overdone. I hate it when what appears to be a marginal forecast nudge moves a stock wildly. But go ahead and do a little balance sheet crunching, and take a good hard look at the recent events in the digital music space. You might be ready to embrace Roxio -- or Napster -- or The Digital Media Company.
Assuming the transaction with Sonic closes as planned -- and that's why the upgrade on the software front makes it even more likely for it to close quickly -- Roxio will be sporting a net cash balance of roughly $3 a share.
Roxio started the week trading at just $3.96. As a potential Green Gene with the company trading for essentially pocket change above its greenery, this wouldn't amount to much if there weren't much of a catalyst.
With Roxio the catalyst is obvious. When Apple's
As in life, when the rich realize that to go to a sold-out concert they have to hit up a scalper for choice front-row seats, I'm not so sure that other wired bellwethers such as Google and Amazon will sit idle.
Roxio's Napster and RealNetworks'
So I'll go out on a limb and predict that as long as each stock remains depressed, that one -- if not both -- may wind up as buyout bait over the next year. So, in retrospect, maybe Monday's pop wasn't so outlandish after all.Will Napster be able to reinvent itself as a legal digital music service, or is Apple running away with the market share pie? If Apple's doing this to move iPods, then can Napster develop a similar model to offset losses in digital music distribution? All this and more in the Apple discussion board. Only on Fool.com.
Longtime Fool contributor Rick Aristotle Munarriz can set this Take to a song if you would like. He does not own shares in any of the companies mentioned in this story.