Shareholders of IMAX (NASDAQ:IMAX) have been given their Christmas presents a little early this year. This morning, the company told investors to expect bigger things ahead, and not just on the silver screen, but where it really counts -- the bottom line. After settling a lawsuit with British-owned United Cinemas International, IMAX is awaiting an undisclosed cash payment this quarter (and another in the first quarter of 2005), prompting management to lift its full-year outlook above the previous $0.23-per-share prediction.
IMAX did not provide a down-to-the-penny revised earnings forecast. Investors, though, were not discouraged by the lack of specificity and sent shares more than 10% higher in morning trading. Some of that enthusiasm may have also been elicited by a second factor that was cited -- the runaway success of Time Warner's (NYSE:TWX) Polar Express.
When I say success, I mean specifically the results from the 61 IMAX theaters where the film is showing, as traditional multiplex viewers have given the Tom Hanks movie a lukewarm reception. The costly project, though, has eclipsed $100 million in box office gross, and the IMAX version has been a groundbreaking achievement. Polar Express is the first Hollywood feature film to be released simultaneously in digitally remastered IMAX 3-D format, and the Christmas tale has shattered a number of records.
The IMAX movie was the quickest ever to reach the $10 million mark, needing only 19 days to do so. By comparison, the monster-screen rendition of Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban needed 71 days to establish the previous record. As of Dec. 6, the IMAX version of Polar Express was playing on less than 2% of the total screens (61 of 3,650) yet had collected almost 14% of the box office receipts ($13.3 million out of $96.1 million).
The nation's top theater chains are beginning to realize the beauty of IMAX's MPX technology, which allows for the conversion of traditional 35mm theaters into giant IMAX screens. National Amusements recently signed a contract for four such IMAX theaters, and since opening on Nov. 10, each has reported four straight weekends of sold-out shows. Moviegoers at the new theaters have offered overwhelmingly positive exit-polling feedback (93%). Packed IMAX screenings have also been reported at Regal Entertainment (NYSE:RGC), Cinemark, and others.
IMAX shares have doubled since this summer, an advance that has attracted the attention of short sellers. Currently, about one-third of IMAX's float is on the short side, and there is reportedly some nervous short covering taking place following today's gains. If the holiday magic of the Polar Express picks up steam heading into Christmas, translating into robust fourth-quarter profits, expect further scrambling from the short sellers in the new year.
Even if the movie comes to a grinding halt, its success -- as well as that of predecessors such as The Matrix, Star Wars: Attack of the Clones, and Disney's (NYSE:DIS) Beauty and the Beast and Lion King -- should be convincing enough to pave the way for further IMAX collaborations with both multiplex operators and Hollywood studios.
Fool contributor Nathan Slaughter is debating whether Polar Express is worth the 150-mile drive to the nearest IMAX 3-D theater. He owns none of the companies mentioned.
