When Rite Aid (NYSE:RAD) reported disappointing November results last week, the company hinted that if sales continued to slip, then its full-year earnings outlook of $0.16 to $0.22 would likely be an unattainable goal. This morning, the nation's No. 3 drugstore chain pegged a number to the projected shortfall, sharply lowering forecasts to a broad range of $0.03 to $0.12 for the fiscal year ending in February. Considering that year-to-date earnings through the first nine months stand at $0.09, it looks like a coin toss as to which side of zero fourth-quarter earnings will land on.
A quick glance at today's third-quarter results reveals why management might be a bit dubious regarding near-term prospects. Net income plummeted from a $73.6 million ($0.12) gain to a $7.7 million ($0.01) loss. Part of the comparative weakness stems from a $20.2 million charge related to debt restructuring. Also, last year's quarter had been favorably impacted by a $47.5 million tax benefit. But ultimately, these factors have nothing to do with top-line growth, which stalled at $4.1 billion.
This sounds like deja vu all over again. Let's see, management first releases poor quarter-ending November same-store sales results that trail rivals Walgreen (NYSE:WAG) and CVS (NYSE:CVS), and then cautions that full-year guidance may need to be trimmed. Investors in turn react harshly by sending the shares down by double digits. Finally, flat third-quarter sales of $4.1 billion are announced shortly after.
Flash back a mere three months ago: Management releases poor quarter-ending August same-store sales results that trail rivals Walgreen and CVS, trims full-year guidance, and investors react harshly by sending the shares down by double digits. Second quarter sales of $4.1 billion (little better than flat) are announced shortly after.
These are not the best of circumstances to be hitting the instant replay button. The only thing that has changed is the laundry list of excuses. Last quarter it was the timing of the Labor Day holiday. This time it was a weak flu season and the mandatory UAW mail-order prescription program. These are valid complaints, to be sure, but Rite Aid often seems to be long on excuses and short on solutions. A few years ago, the litany of problems prompted Bill Mann to draft a ready-made press release.
Rite-Aid has staged an impressive turnaround in the last several years, managing a return to profitability from a former $1.7 billion annual loss. And there were a few bright spots this quarter, such as a strengthening balance sheet. The company reduced debt by $634 million, and refinancing has shaved $27 million in annual borrowing costs. Unfortunately, this was overshadowed by relatively flat same-store sales, declining earnings, contracting margins, and lowered guidance (the third reduction this year).
Not only is Rite Aid the least profitable of the big-three drug chains, but it's also the most leveraged. That debt leaves the handcuffed company at a distinct disadvantage in terms of expansion. It only opened two new stores last quarter and closed nine. Walgreen, by comparison, opened 208 new locations. This stagnation, combined with minimal traction from its existing stores, does little to prevent Rite Aid from falling further behind its larger rivals.
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Fool contributor Nathan Slaughter owns none of the companies mentioned.
